SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 7, 2027 · 89d

Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

47%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

47%

11 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$2K

11 contracts

Closes

Jan 7, 2027

89 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 32% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 32% on 2026-09-25
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Amber Glenn qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$1K

Cluster 2

Will Ezra Frech qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$757

Cluster 3

Will Connor Wood qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$130

Cluster 4

Will Jenna Dewan qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$88

Cluster 5

Will Jackson Olson qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$85

Cluster 6

Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$46

Cluster 7

Will Harry Shum Jr. qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$25

Cluster 8

Will Julia Stiles qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$16

Cluster 9

Will Guillermo Rodriguez qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$10

Cluster 10

Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Tatyana Ali qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market reflects a 31% probability that Tyler Cameron will advance to the finale of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. Cameron's advancement depends on accumulating enough votes through weekly eliminations and maintaining competitive performance scores from the judges. The primary drivers of this probability are viewer voting patterns and his technical progress relative to other contestants. Most contestants at 40 cents or higher (like Harry Shum Jr. at 69 cents) suggest stronger perceived frontrunner status. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the season's weekly elimination rounds, with the finale typically occurring in late November. Cameron's chances could shift materially based on his choreography difficulty, performance consistency, and whether he generates sustained audience engagement across the remaining weeks.

  • ›Tyler Cameron's current position at 31% is substantially lower than several other male contestants (Harry Shum Jr. at 69%, Connor Wood at 40%), indicating market assessment of his relative competitive standing
  • ›Weekly judge scores and viewer voting patterns will directly determine progression; his trajectory depends on maintaining or improving performance quality as competition intensifies
  • ›Thirteen active contracts on Kalshi with $2,207 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for this specific outcome
  • ›Casting of Season 35 and contestant pairings with professional dancers affect perceived competitive advantage; initial choreography assignment and partner chemistry matter for performance consistency
  • ›Fan engagement and social media momentum across eight to ten weeks of competition will compound to determine final voting results that gate finals qualification

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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