Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
89 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Amber Glenn qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Amber Glenn qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Amber Glenn
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-AGLE
Cluster 2
Will Ezra Frech qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Ezra Frech qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Ezra Frech
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-EFRE
Cluster 3
Will Connor Wood qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Connor Wood qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Connor Wood
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-CWOO
Cluster 4
Will Jenna Dewan qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Jenna Dewan qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Jenna Dewan
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-JDEW
Cluster 5
Will Jackson Olson qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Jackson Olson qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Jackson Olson
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-JOLS
Cluster 6
Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Tyler Cameron
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-TCAM
Cluster 7
Will Harry Shum Jr. qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Harry Shum Jr. qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Harry Shum Jr.
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-HSHU
Cluster 8
Will Julia Stiles qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Julia Stiles qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Julia Stiles
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-JSTIL
Cluster 9
Will Guillermo Rodriguez qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Guillermo Rodriguez qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Guillermo Rodriguez
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-GROD
Cluster 10
Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Maura Higgins
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-MHIG
Cluster 11
Will Tatyana Ali qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale
Will Tatyana Ali qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Tatyana Ali
KXDWTSFINALS-31DEC26-TAT
Analysis
This market reflects a 31% probability that Tyler Cameron will advance to the finale of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. Cameron's advancement depends on accumulating enough votes through weekly eliminations and maintaining competitive performance scores from the judges. The primary drivers of this probability are viewer voting patterns and his technical progress relative to other contestants. Most contestants at 40 cents or higher (like Harry Shum Jr. at 69 cents) suggest stronger perceived frontrunner status. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the season's weekly elimination rounds, with the finale typically occurring in late November. Cameron's chances could shift materially based on his choreography difficulty, performance consistency, and whether he generates sustained audience engagement across the remaining weeks.
- ›Tyler Cameron's current position at 31% is substantially lower than several other male contestants (Harry Shum Jr. at 69%, Connor Wood at 40%), indicating market assessment of his relative competitive standing
- ›Weekly judge scores and viewer voting patterns will directly determine progression; his trajectory depends on maintaining or improving performance quality as competition intensifies
- ›Thirteen active contracts on Kalshi with $2,207 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for this specific outcome
- ›Casting of Season 35 and contestant pairings with professional dancers affect perceived competitive advantage; initial choreography assignment and partner chemistry matter for performance consistency
- ›Fan engagement and social media momentum across eight to ten weeks of competition will compound to determine final voting results that gate finals qualification
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the governorship in Alaskalast 76% · 1d
- Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027last 83% · 4d
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Jan 1, 2027last 95% · 4d
- Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $17M in cash on hand at the end of Q3last 42% · 4d
- Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jun 1, 2026last 3% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.