Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.32 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026
Leader sits at 80% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.20
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Above $0.32
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the OpenAI average token price be above
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.32 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.32
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.32
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 1.00 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $1.00
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T1.00
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.90 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.90
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.90
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.80 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.80
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.80
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.70 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.70
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.70
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.60 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.60
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.60
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.50 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.50
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.50
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.40 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.40
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.40
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.30 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.30
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.30
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.20 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026: Above $0.20
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG31-T0.20
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.62 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.62
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.62
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.59 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.59
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.59
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.56 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.56
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.56
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.53 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.53
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.53
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.50 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.50
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.50
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.47 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.47
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.47
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.44 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.44
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.44
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.41 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.41
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.41
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.38 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.38
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.38
Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.35 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026: Above $0.35
KXOPENTOKEND-26AUG14-T0.35
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that OpenAI's average token price will exceed $0.32 per token by 10AM ET on August 14, 2026—one week from today. The 73% probability reflects trader expectations that prices will remain at or above this threshold during the settlement window. Token pricing fluctuates based on demand for OpenAI's API services, model updates, competitive pricing from rival providers, and broader market conditions for AI infrastructure costs. The single most important factor is whether OpenAI announces price changes or new service tiers before the settlement date. Traders are also pricing in typical weekly volatility and seasonal patterns in API usage. The contract structure shows declining probabilities for higher price thresholds ($0.35, $0.38, $0.41), indicating meaningful uncertainty about how far prices might rise, but relative confidence they will stay above the $0.32 floor.
- ›OpenAI's published API token pricing as of August 7, 2026, and any official price announcements through August 14 10AM ET
- ›Comparative pricing movements from competing providers (Anthropic, Google, other AI API services) during the settlement week
- ›Historical volatility patterns in OpenAI token pricing over equivalent weekly windows in prior months
- ›Volume and demand signals from major API consumers that might influence dynamic pricing or promotional adjustments
- ›Any scheduled product announcements, model releases, or service updates from OpenAI between now and settlement that could impact token valuation
What moved the line
- Aug 7Above $0.20↓29pp78→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above $0.30↓23pp63→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above $0.40↓17pp48→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above $0.50↓12pp36→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above $0.60↓9pp27→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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