Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 20, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Fable 5 access will be restored for US customers sometime before July 1, 2026, with a 64% chance assigned to this outcome. Markets are pricing in roughly a two-in-three likelihood that restoration occurs within the next two weeks. The pricing gap between the June 20 contract (40¢) and the July 1 contract (66¢) suggests traders believe most restoration activity, if it occurs, would happen in late June rather than immediately. The June 15 contract pricing near 11¢ indicates very low odds of restoration by tomorrow. Key drivers include the technical scope of the access issue, the priority level assigned by developers, and any public statements about timeline. Resolution will depend on whether official channels report access has been restored and when that announcement occurs.

• ›The June 15 contract trades at 11¢, indicating traders assign minimal probability to restoration within the next 24 hours, suggesting either technical complexity or lower urgency
• ›The 26-percentage-point spread between June 20 (40¢) and July 1 (66¢) contracts indicates most expected restoration activity clusters in late June rather than early or mid-month
• ›Kalshi's 24-hour volume ($2,570 for the June 20 contract) is lower than earlier-date contracts, potentially reflecting reduced trader conviction or lower interest in the near-term window
• ›The definition explicitly requires reporting by 'any of the Source Agencies,' meaning the resolution depends on official communication rather than user reports or informal indicators
• ›No scheduled maintenance windows or public timeline statements have been referenced, leaving restoration dependent on unannounced developer decisions

What moved the line

• Jun 19Before Jul 24, 2026↑28pp55→83¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Before Jul 10, 2026↑25pp61→86¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Before Jul 24, 2026↓23pp78→55¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Before Jul 1, 2026↓20pp47→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Before Jul 17, 2026↑20pp65→85¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds