Will Bernard Cazeneuve qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Apr 17, 2028
643 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bruno Retailleau qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Dominique de Villepin qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Élisabeth Borne qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 5
Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 6
Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Jordan Bardella qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 8
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 9
Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 10
Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election
Analysis
This probability indicates an 18% chance that Bernard Cazeneuve will finish in the top two of the first round of the 2027 French presidential election and advance to the runoff. Cazeneuve, a former Prime Minister and Socialist politician, faces structural headwinds: the Socialist Party has declined significantly in recent years, and current polling suggests candidates from the right (Retailleau, de Villepin) and far-right (Bardella) are more competitive. The contract pricing reflects his outsider status compared to other major candidates. The primary uncertainty around Cazeneuve's odds stems from whether the French left can consolidate behind a single candidate and whether economic or political crises between now and April 2027 might reshape the race. The actual first round vote on April 10, 2027 will definitively resolve whether he clears the threshold to qualify for the May runoff.
- ›Recent polling aggregates show Cazeneuve consistently polling below 10%, placing him behind Bardella, Retailleau, Macron-aligned candidates, and sometimes far-left candidates
- ›The Socialist Party's electoral performance has deteriorated significantly since 2017, with market pricing suggesting skepticism about a left-wing revival
- ›Cazeneuve lacks the institutional backing of centrist or right-wing parties; his qualification depends on personal appeal or unexpected left consolidation
- ›Major economic data, scandals, or geopolitical events between July 2026 and April 2027 could reshape voter preferences and candidate viability
- ›The runoff structure requires finishing top-2 in round one (April 2027), not simply exceeding a fixed threshold, making relative positioning against ~10 other major candidates critical
What moved the line
- Jul 12Marine Le Pen↑14pp64→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Élisabeth Borne↓11pp17→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12Bruno Retailleau↓10pp16→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12Dominique de Villepin↓10pp15→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Jordan Bardella↓10pp17→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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