Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Leader sits at 65% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ashley Hinson
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Josh Turek
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$178
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
450 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Analysis
The 58% probability reflects market expectations that Republican Ashley Hinson will win Iowa's 2026 Senate seat. This represents a substantial but not overwhelming advantage over Democrat Zach Wahls at 14% and independent Josh Turek at 26%. The current pricing reflects Hinson's incumbent status and recent electoral performance in Iowa, though the substantial runner-up probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about voter preferences heading into the general election. Key factors affecting this outcome include national political environment shifts, candidate fundraising and campaign performance, and demographic voting patterns in Iowa. The general election on November 3, 2026, will ultimately resolve the race, though primary outcomes and debate performances may significantly move probabilities in the months beforehand.
- ›Ashley Hinson's 2022 Senate race performance and current approval ratings in Iowa
- ›National midterm political dynamics and their specific impact on Midwest swing-state sentiment
- ›Turnout and coalition composition in Iowa given demographic shifts since 2022
- ›Candidate campaign infrastructure quality and fundraising disparities between Hinson, Wahls, and Turek
- ›Iowa-specific economic conditions and voter priorities between primary elections and November 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 6Ashley Hinson↑5pp53→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Ashley Hinson↑5pp58→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Josh Turek↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Josh Turek↓3pp39→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Josh Turek↓3pp36→33¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2last 31% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (65% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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