Will Frank Chikane win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$372
5 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$248 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will David Makhura win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Cluster 2
Will Loyiso Masuku win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Cluster 3
Will Frank Chikane win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Cluster 4
Will Herman Mashaba win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Cluster 5
Will Helen Zille win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections
Analysis
This contract estimates a 20% chance that Frank Chikane will become Johannesburg's mayor following the 2026 municipal elections. The probability reflects his position as a moderate candidate among several contenders with varying party affiliations and institutional backing. Helen Zille leads related markets at 66%, while David Makhura trails at 4%, suggesting market participants view the race outcome as highly uncertain. Chikane's probability could shift based on his campaign visibility, party endorsements, and performance in pre-election polling. The municipal elections themselves, when held, will provide the decisive outcome. Until then, market movements will likely respond to campaign announcements, alliance formations between political parties, and any published voter preference surveys that emerge during the 2026 election period.
- ›Helen Zille contracts price at 66% despite leading other named candidates, indicating significant market uncertainty about the overall race structure
- ›Chikane's 20% probability places him third among named candidates, behind Zille but ahead of Mashaba (10%), suggesting differentiated assessments of viability
- ›No candidate contract exceeds 66%, indicating the market does not treat any single outcome as highly probable despite these being major South African political figures
- ›The 2026 municipal election date determines when this contract resolves, making campaign dynamics and party coalition announcements key drivers of price movement
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts suggests minimal recent market activity or consensus shifts in recent days
What moved the line
- Jul 10Helen Zille↑43pp24→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Herman Mashaba↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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