SimpleFunctions
13 source contracts·Kalshi 13·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 22, 2026 · 87d

Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 13 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

7%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

7%

13 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$168

13 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

87 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (29 days, 29 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-07-27
Aggregate of 13 contracts · 29d

Bracket families

13 clusters across 13 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Jordan Walker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$87

Cluster 2

Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$73

Cluster 3

Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$8

Cluster 4

Will Nick Kurtz lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Sal Stewart lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Junior Caminero finishes the 2026 MLB regular season leading all of baseball in runs batted in. At 6%, the market assigns this a modest probability compared to competitors like Yordan Alvarez (14%) and Jordan Walker (13%). Caminero's relatively low probability reflects his position as a younger player with less historical volume and consistency data compared to established sluggers. The metric would move higher if Caminero demonstrates sustained offensive performance through July and August, maintaining an RBI pace that outpaces the league leaders. The primary catalyst occurs at season's end in late September when final 2026 statistics are recorded and the RBI leader is definitively determined. Markets are pricing in early-season performance trends and historical patterns of established hitters maintaining their offensive output through the full season.

  • Caminero's RBI production rate through July and August relative to current league leaders like Alvarez and Walker
  • His team's offensive lineup composition and batting order position, which affects opportunities to drive in runs
  • Historical durability and consistency patterns: whether he can sustain current performance pace without injury or decline through season's end
  • Comparison of his cumulative RBI total to competitors as the season approaches its final months
  • Team playoff positioning and potential roster adjustments that could affect his playing time in September

What moved the line

  • Jul 24Jordan Walker3pp1215¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 25Jordan Walker3pp1512¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 20Yordan Alvarez3pp1619¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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