Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-AJUD
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-SOHT
Cluster 3
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Schwarber
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-KSCH
Cluster 4
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-JCAM
Cluster 5
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Freddie Freeman
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-FFRE
Cluster 6
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-MOLS
Cluster 7
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Julio Rodríguez
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-JROD
Cluster 8
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BHAR
Cluster 9
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Rafael Devers
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-RDEV
Cluster 10
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Gunnar Henderson
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-GHEN
Cluster 11
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-YALV
Cluster 12
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BROO
Analysis
This contract reflects a 6% probability that Junior Caminero will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the most RBIs among all players. The low probability reflects that leading the league in RBIs typically requires both elite offensive production and consistent playing time throughout a 162-game season. Caminero's chances depend on whether he maintains his current performance level, stays healthy, and receives sufficient at-bats. The outcome will be determined by comparing final RBI totals across all MLB players when the regular season concludes in late September 2026. Key considerations include Caminero's year-to-date performance relative to established sluggers, his team's lineup construction, and whether any injuries affect his availability or that of competitors with higher market probabilities.
- ›Caminero's current 2026 season RBI pace compared to established league leaders like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other high-volume run producers
- ›Whether Caminero maintains regular starting status and receives consistent at-bats throughout the remainder of the season
- ›His historical volatility in performance and injury history relative to competitors with longer track records of sustained production
- ›The strength of Caminero's team's roster and batting order, which determines his opportunity to drive in runs
- ›Comparison of Caminero's total through August 2026 versus frontrunners, as this would indicate whether he can realistically close any gap by season's end
What moved the line
- May 7Aaron Judge↑5pp24→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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