Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$181
11 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
90 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sal Stewart lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Sal Stewart lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Sal Stewart
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-SSTE
Cluster 2
Will Jordan Walker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Jordan Walker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Jordan Walker
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-JWAL
Cluster 3
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-YALV
Cluster 4
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Bo Bichette
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BBIC
Cluster 5
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BHAR
Cluster 6
Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Ben Rice
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BRIC
Cluster 7
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BROO
Cluster 8
Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Brice Turang
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-BTUR
Cluster 9
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-CRAL
Cluster 10
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Corey Seager
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-CSEA
Cluster 11
Will Drake Baldwin lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season
Will Drake Baldwin lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?: Drake Baldwin
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-DBAL
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Junior Caminero finishes the 2026 MLB regular season leading all of baseball in runs batted in. At 6%, the market assigns this a modest probability compared to competitors like Yordan Alvarez (14%) and Jordan Walker (13%). Caminero's relatively low probability reflects his position as a younger player with less historical volume and consistency data compared to established sluggers. The metric would move higher if Caminero demonstrates sustained offensive performance through July and August, maintaining an RBI pace that outpaces the league leaders. The primary catalyst occurs at season's end in late September when final 2026 statistics are recorded and the RBI leader is definitively determined. Markets are pricing in early-season performance trends and historical patterns of established hitters maintaining their offensive output through the full season.
- ›Caminero's RBI production rate through July and August relative to current league leaders like Alvarez and Walker
- ›His team's offensive lineup composition and batting order position, which affects opportunities to drive in runs
- ›Historical durability and consistency patterns: whether he can sustain current performance pace without injury or decline through season's end
- ›Comparison of his cumulative RBI total to competitors as the season approaches its final months
- ›Team playoff positioning and potential roster adjustments that could affect his playing time in September
What moved the line
- Jul 18Yordan Alvarez↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Yordan Alvarez↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Yordan Alvarez↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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