Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027
Leader sits at 59% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Before Jul 1, 2027
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
510 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26DEC01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-JAN01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-28JAN01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-27JUL01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26SEP01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26OCT01
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-26NOV01
Analysis
Markets currently assess a 47% chance that Ken Martin will no longer serve as DNC chair before January 1, 2028. This reflects moderate uncertainty about his tenure over the next 5-6 months. The probability is driven primarily by the DNC's recent 2024 electoral performance and typical leadership transitions following presidential election cycles. Near-term exit odds are much lower (15% before September 2026, 31% before July 2027), suggesting markets expect him to remain in position through at least late 2026. The main catalyst would be either an explicit public announcement of resignation or removal by the DNC's governing body, which typically occurs during formal meetings or in response to internal party dynamics.
- ›DNC chair terms are often tied to election cycles; 2024 results will heavily influence whether leadership remains stable or faces pressure to change
- ›No public announcement of Martin stepping down has been reported as of July 2026, which would be necessary for the near-term contracts to resolve positively
- ›The DNC typically conducts formal leadership reviews or transitions at scheduled meetings rather than through unplanned removals
- ›Historical precedent shows DNC chairs often serve through the post-election transition period into the following year before changes occur
- ›Volume is concentrated in the Jan 1, 2028 contract ($5 24h), with minimal trading on nearer-term dates, indicating limited conviction in near-term exit scenarios
What moved the line
- Aug 6Before Jan 1, 2027↓9pp37→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Before Dec 1, 2026↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before Jul 1, 2027↑4pp33→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Before Dec 1, 2026↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Before Dec 1, 2026↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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