Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people in 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates whether Meta will report at least 3.68 billion family daily active people by end of 2026. The 90% confidence reflects Meta's historical growth trajectory and the relatively modest 0.5% increase required from their most recent reported levels. The metric matters because family daily active people (combining WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram, and Facebook) is Meta's primary engagement metric used to assess platform health and advertiser reach. The main uncertainty driver is whether user growth will continue at historical rates or whether saturation in developed markets and macroeconomic headwinds could slow expansion. The resolution will occur when Meta files their 2026 full-year earnings report, likely in January 2027, when they disclose official DAP figures.

• ›Meta reported approximately 3.65 billion family DAP in Q4 2025, requiring only modest incremental growth to exceed the 3.68 billion threshold
• ›The market prices above-3.66 billion at 89% while above-3.72 billion at only 57%, suggesting traders view moderate growth as highly likely but acceleration as less probable
• ›Year-to-date 2026 user trends through Q2 will provide concrete evidence of whether growth is tracking toward or away from the threshold
• ›Meta's execution on AI monetization and geographic expansion in emerging markets will influence whether growth maintains historical rates
• ›Resolution depends entirely on Meta's official Q4 2026 earnings disclosure, with no interim data points definitively settling the contract

What moved the line

• Jun 25Above 71000↑4pp66→70¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Above 77000↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds