Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people in 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 8%
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above 10%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
588 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Meta Platforms
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 10% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 10%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-10
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 74000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 74000
KXMETAA-28JANHEAD-74000
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 71000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 71000
KXMETAA-28JANHEAD-71000
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 68000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 68000
KXMETAA-28JANHEAD-68000
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 65000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 65000
KXMETAA-28JANHEAD-65000
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.8 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.8 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3800000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.78 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.78 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3780000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.76 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.76 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3760000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.74 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.74 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3740000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.72 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.72 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3720000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.7 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.7 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3700000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.68 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3680000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.66 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.66 billion
KXMETAA-28JANDAP-3660000000.0
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 8% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 8%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-8
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 18% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 18%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-18
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 16% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 16%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-16
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 14% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 14%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-14
Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 12% worldwide ad impressions growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 12%
KXMETAA-27JANIMPR-12
Analysis
This probability estimates whether Meta will report at least 3.68 billion family daily active people by end of 2026. The 90% confidence reflects Meta's historical growth trajectory and the relatively modest 0.5% increase required from their most recent reported levels. The metric matters because family daily active people (combining WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram, and Facebook) is Meta's primary engagement metric used to assess platform health and advertiser reach. The main uncertainty driver is whether user growth will continue at historical rates or whether saturation in developed markets and macroeconomic headwinds could slow expansion. The resolution will occur when Meta files their 2026 full-year earnings report, likely in January 2027, when they disclose official DAP figures.
- ›Meta reported approximately 3.65 billion family DAP in Q4 2025, requiring only modest incremental growth to exceed the 3.68 billion threshold
- ›The market prices above-3.66 billion at 89% while above-3.72 billion at only 57%, suggesting traders view moderate growth as highly likely but acceleration as less probable
- ›Year-to-date 2026 user trends through Q2 will provide concrete evidence of whether growth is tracking toward or away from the threshold
- ›Meta's execution on AI monetization and geographic expansion in emerging markets will influence whether growth maintains historical rates
- ›Resolution depends entirely on Meta's official Q4 2026 earnings disclosure, with no interim data points definitively settling the contract
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 68000↓38pp82→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 12%↓28pp76→48¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 12%↑28pp48→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 10%↓27pp92→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 10%↑27pp65→92¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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