Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election
Leader sits at 88% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democrat sweep
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
Spread
82pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
453 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican
KXMISC-26-1DR
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: Republican sweep
KXMISC-26-2R
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: Democrat sweep
KXMISC-26-2D
Analysis
Markets currently price a Democratic sweep of Michigan's Supreme Court races at 88%, meaning traders estimate roughly a 9-in-10 chance that both open seats will be won by Democratic candidates. This reflects Michigan's recent electoral lean, where Democrats have performed strongly in statewide contests, combined with structural factors favoring one party across both races. The main variables affecting this probability are turnout patterns in November 2026, candidate fundraising and name recognition, any late-breaking scandals or judicial decisions that shift voter sentiment, and polling trends over the coming months. The November 2026 general election itself will be the decisive event, though meaningful shifts in this probability could occur if major polling updates or campaign developments emerge between now and then.
- ›Michigan Democrats won three statewide races in 2022 (governor, secretary of state, attorney general) with margins exceeding 10 points, establishing a blue trend in recent electoral cycles
- ›Turnout composition in off-year elections versus presidential cycles affects the balance—November 2026 is a midterm with no presidential race, which typically alters voter demographics
- ›Specific candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition for both Democratic and Republican nominees will materially influence individual race outcomes
- ›Recent Michigan Supreme Court decisions on abortion rights and election administration have shaped voter priorities and may drive partisan polarization
- ›Public polling released in fall 2026 showing either party gaining ground or specific candidate momentum could shift market probabilities before the November election
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13last 96% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%last 3% · 1d
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 1d
- Will Donald Trump endorse Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026last 3% · 1d
- Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michiganlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
2026 Midterm Primaries Take Center Stage with High-Volume Bets
The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary and Michigan Senate race dominate trading, with massive volumes on contracts like Byron Donalds' nomination and the Senate margin of victory. These markets are setting expectations for the broader 2026 electoral landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.