Will Jackson Flora be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$458
17 contracts
Closes
Jul 21, 2026
73 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Vahn Lackey be picked” vs “Will Grady Emerson be picked”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Vahn Lackey be picked
Will Vahn Lackey be picked 1st in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Vahn Lackey
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-1-VLAC
Will Vahn Lackey be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Vahn Lackey
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-3-VLAC
Will Vahn Lackey be picked 4th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Vahn Lackey
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-4-VLAC
Will Vahn Lackey be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Vahn Lackey
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-VLAC
Cluster 2
Will Grady Emerson be picked
Will Grady Emerson be picked 1st in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-1-GEME
Will Grady Emerson be picked 2nd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-2-GEME
Will Grady Emerson be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-3-GEME
Cluster 3
Will Jackson Flora be picked
Will Jackson Flora be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jackson Flora
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-JFLO
Will Jackson Flora be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jackson Flora
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-3-JFLO
Will Jackson Flora be picked 4th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jackson Flora
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-4-JFLO
Cluster 4
Will Jacob Lombard be picked
Will Jacob Lombard be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jacob Lombard
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-JLOM
Will Jacob Lombard be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jacob Lombard
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-3-JLOM
Will Jacob Lombard be picked 4th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jacob Lombard
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-4-JLOM
Cluster 5
Will Roch Cholowsky be picked
Cluster 6
Will Eric Booth Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft
Will Eric Booth Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Eric Booth Jr.
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-EBOO
Cluster 7
Will Justin Lebron be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft
Will Justin Lebron be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Justin Lebron
KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-3-JLEB
What moved the line
- May 9Roch Cholowsky↑4pp48→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.