Will Jackson Flora be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 16% chance that Jackson Flora will be selected 3rd overall in the professional baseball draft. The probability reflects Flora's competitive position against other top-tier prospects, with the ordering of early draft picks largely dependent on team priorities and player performance in pre-draft evaluations. Flora's current position is modest compared to leading candidates like Roch Cholowsky (55% for 1st pick) and Grady Emerson (27% for 2nd pick), suggesting scouts and analysts view other prospects as more likely top-three selections. The main factors influencing this probability would be Flora's performance in final pre-draft workouts, any changes to team needs at the top of the draft order, or shifts in how teams evaluate competing prospects. The draft itself will resolve all uncertainty once selections are announced.

• ›Flora's contract for 3rd pick (16%) is notably lower than contracts for 1st pick candidates like Cholowsky (55%) and Emerson at 2nd (27%), indicating market consensus favors other prospects ahead of him
• ›Flora has a 9% contract for 2nd pick but no listed contract for 1st pick, suggesting the market perceives him as a mid-round-one possibility rather than a consensus top prospect
• ›The top four 1st-pick contracts (Cholowsky 55%, Lackey 25%, Emerson 13%, and others) sum to over 93%, leaving limited probability mass for Flora at earlier positions
• ›Contract volumes are relatively modest ($0-$1014 in 24h volume), indicating this is a lower-volume market segment with potentially wider bid-ask spreads
• ›Flora's probability depends on both which teams pick 1st and 2nd and their draft selections, introducing dependency on multiple sequential outcomes rather than an independent event

What moved the line

• Jun 25Roch Cholowsky↑8pp62→70¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Roch Cholowsky↑6pp56→62¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Vahn Lackey↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Roch Cholowsky↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Roch Cholowsky↑3pp55→58¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds