Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2027
312 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Golden State qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament
Cluster 2
Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Atlanta
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-ATL
Cluster 3
Will Brooklyn qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Brooklyn qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Brooklyn
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-BKN
Cluster 4
Will Boston qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Boston qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Boston
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-BOS
Cluster 5
Will Charlotte qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Charlotte qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Charlotte
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-CHA
Cluster 6
Will Chicago qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Chicago qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Chicago
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-CHI
Cluster 7
Will Cleveland qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Cleveland qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Cleveland
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-CLE
Cluster 8
Will Detroit qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Detroit qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Detroit
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-DET
Cluster 9
Will Indiana qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Indiana qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Indiana
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-IND
Cluster 10
Will Miami qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Miami qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Miami
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-MIA
Cluster 11
Will Milwaukee qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Milwaukee qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Milwaukee
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-MIL
Cluster 12
Will New York qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will New York qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: New York
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-NYK
Cluster 13
Will Orlando qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Orlando qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Orlando
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-ORL
Cluster 14
Will Philadelphia qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Cluster 15
Will Toronto qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Toronto qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Toronto
KXNBAPLAYIN-27EAST-TOR
Cluster 16
Will Washington qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament
Cluster 17
Will Dallas qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Dallas qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament?: Dallas
KXNBAPLAYIN-27WEST-DAL
Cluster 18
Will Denver qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Denver qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament?: Denver
KXNBAPLAYIN-27WEST-DEN
Cluster 19
Will Houston qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament
Will Houston qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament?: Houston
KXNBAPLAYIN-27WEST-HOU
Cluster 20
Will Los Angeles C qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that the Atlanta Hawks finish the 2025-26 NBA season within the top 10 of the Eastern Conference, qualifying for the play-in tournament. The 6% forecast reflects the Hawks' current position outside likely playoff contention, with their path dependent on both their own win-rate improvement and other teams' performance over the remaining schedule. The team's roster construction, health status of key players, and trade deadline moves represent primary variables that could shift this outcome. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season standings on April 10, 2026, when the NBA regular season concludes and playoff qualification is mathematically determined.
- ›Hawks' current win-loss record and remaining schedule games relative to the 10th seed cutoff in the Eastern Conference
- ›Performance of marginal playoff-contention teams (currently Charlotte, Miami, and Orlando are similarly priced at 6%) competing for the same play-in spots
- ›Health and availability of Atlanta's core rotation players throughout the remainder of the regular season
- ›Any significant roster changes via trade deadline (February 10, 2026) that could alter team trajectory and competitiveness
- ›Conference-wide competitive dynamics, including performance shifts in upper-tier teams that could create or eliminate play-in opportunities
What moved the line
- Aug 4Miami↓18pp45→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Washington↓15pp33→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Atlanta↓14pp27→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Orlando↓14pp27→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Golden State↓13pp37→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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