Will it be confirmed that No one is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the current market estimate that no Republican nominee will be officially confirmed for North Carolina's 11th congressional district by August 11, 2026. Tim Moffitt is the market-leading candidate at 56 cents, suggesting most traders expect a nominee to be selected rather than an empty outcome. The 'no one' outcome at 7 cents indicates relatively low concern about procedural failure or missed deadlines. The key driver is whether the NC Republican Party completes its nomination process by the deadline—either through a primary, convention, or other established mechanism. The resolution hinges on official confirmation rather than preliminary results. August 11, 2026 is the specific date when confirmation must occur; any delay beyond that date or procedural breakdown would resolve this contract affirmatively.

• ›Tim Moffitt's 56-cent price (vs. 7 cents for 'no one') suggests traders assign roughly 80% probability to a nominee being confirmed by August 11
• ›The 'no one' contract has minimal trading volume ($61 in 24 hours), indicating low liquidity and potentially weak conviction behind the low price
• ›NC-11 Republican nomination procedures and their timeline determine whether August 11 is sufficient for formal confirmation of a nominee
• ›No candidate besides Moffitt trades above 8 cents, consolidating market belief around a single frontrunner rather than wide-open race
• ›Historical data on NC Republican Party nomination timelines and whether August 11 represents an early, on-schedule, or late confirmation date

What moved the line

• Aug 9Jennifer Balkcom↑12pp6→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Kevin Corbin↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Kevin Corbin↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9No one↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 8Jennifer Balkcom↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds