Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$183
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
104 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will UTSA win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will UTSA win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: UTSA
KXNCAAFAAC-26-UTSA
Cluster 2
Will Memphis win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will Memphis win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Memphis
KXNCAAFAAC-26-MEM
Cluster 3
Will South Florida win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Cluster 4
Will Navy win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will Navy win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Navy
KXNCAAFAAC-26-NAVY
Cluster 5
Will Army win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will Army win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Army
KXNCAAFAAC-26-ARMY
Cluster 6
Will North Texas win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will North Texas win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: North Texas
KXNCAAFAAC-26-UNT
Cluster 7
Will Tulsa win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will Tulsa win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Tulsa
KXNCAAFAAC-26-TLSA
Cluster 8
Will East Carolina win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship
Will East Carolina win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: East Carolina
KXNCAAFAAC-26-ECU
Analysis
This contract reflects a 10% chance that Tulane wins the American Athletic Conference Championship in college football. The probability is relatively low, suggesting the market views Tulane as unlikely to secure the conference title this season. Several factors would influence this probability: Tulane's actual win-loss record and conference performance, competition from other AAC teams, and their remaining schedule difficulty. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the remainder of the 2026 college football season, with the AAC Championship game determining the winner. The current price implies stronger favorites exist within the conference, potentially teams like Tulsa (7¢), Memphis (15¢), and Navy (13¢) based on the contract prices shown.
- ›Tulane's current win-loss record and conference standing relative to other AAC teams
- ›The strength of Tulane's remaining schedule and their head-to-head matchups against likely conference contenders
- ›Comparative contract pricing for other AAC teams, indicating market confidence rankings among conference members
- ›Historical performance data: Tulane's performance in previous AAC seasons and conference championship games
- ›Trading volume and price movement on the Tulane contract, showing whether market participants are increasing or decreasing confidence
What moved the line
- Sep 17Navy↓11pp14→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Memphis↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Army↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17South Florida↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18North Texas↓5pp7→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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