Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects Tulane's chances of winning the American Athletic Conference Championship in college football. At 10%, it indicates the market views Tulane as a significant underdog among conference competitors. The probability is driven primarily by Tulane's historical performance relative to other AAC programs and their roster strength heading into the season. Key factors that would move this probability include Tulane's performance during the regular season, particularly in conference matchups, and their ability to avoid injuries among key players. The 2026 college football season's opening games and early conference contests will provide the first concrete data on team performance, which typically drives substantial probability adjustments. This market reflects uncertainty about how Tulane's team will perform against stronger programs both within and outside the conference.

• ›Tulane's regular-season win-loss record, particularly in AAC conference games, which directly determines their eligibility and seeding for the championship game
• ›The strength of competing AAC programs and their early-season performance, which will establish the relative competitiveness of the conference
• ›Key player availability and injury status for Tulane throughout the regular season, as losses to critical offensive or defensive contributors would materially impact championship odds
• ›Head-to-head results in Tulane's matchups against other top AAC contenders, which serve as direct evidence of competitive strength
• ›Market re-pricing based on early season results, as the 10% probability will adjust significantly based on actual performance data from September-November 2026 games

What moved the line

• Jul 20East Carolina↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 18Navy↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22South Florida↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds