Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$888
17 contracts
Closes
Feb 7, 2027
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami (FL) be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Cluster 2
Will Auburn be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Auburn be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Auburn
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-AUB
Cluster 3
Will Oregon be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Oregon be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Oregon
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-ORE
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Oklahoma be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-OKLA
Cluster 5
Will Alabama be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Alabama be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Alabama
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-ALA
Cluster 6
Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Indiana
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-IND
Cluster 7
Will LSU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will LSU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: LSU
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-LSU
Cluster 8
Will Michigan be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Michigan be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Michigan
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-MICH
Cluster 9
Will Ole Miss be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Ole Miss be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-MISS
Cluster 10
Will Notre Dame be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Cluster 11
Will Ohio St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Ohio St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-OSU
Cluster 12
Will Texas be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Texas be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Texas
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-TEX
Cluster 13
Will Texas Tech be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Cluster 14
Will Texas A&M be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Texas A&M be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-TXAM
Cluster 15
Will Georgia be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Georgia be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Georgia
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-UGA
Cluster 16
Will USC be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will USC be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: USC
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-USC
Cluster 17
Will Washington be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff
Will Washington be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Washington
KXNCAAFTOPSEED-27T4-WASH
Analysis
This probability reflects market assessment that Indiana has a 17% chance of earning a top-four seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. The market currently prices Indiana below several peer programs, suggesting skepticism about the program's competitive trajectory or strength of schedule. Key drivers include Indiana's actual win-loss record, conference standing, and strength of schedule as the season unfolds. The 2026 college football season, which runs from September through December, will determine Indiana's final ranking relative to other contenders. The playoff selection decision itself occurs in early December 2026 after the regular season concludes, making that the hard resolution point for this market. Market participants appear to be factoring in Indiana's historical playoff accessibility relative to emerging contenders like Texas and Notre Dame.
- ›Indiana's actual regular season record and final conference standing as of early December 2026
- ›Quality of Indiana's non-conference schedule and overall strength of schedule compared to competing programs
- ›Indiana's performance against ranked opponents and results in decisive conference games
- ›The relative strength of the Big Ten conference in 2026 and how many teams from the conference earn top-four seeds
- ›Injuries to key players or coaching changes that materially affect Indiana's competitiveness during the season
What moved the line
- Aug 21Notre Dame↑14pp40→54¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Texas↓12pp35→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Texas Tech↓12pp30→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Georgia↑12pp18→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20LSU↓11pp19→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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