Will Bijan Robinson be a top 5 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 18, 2027
146 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Fernando Mendoza be a top” vs “Will Jadarian Price be a top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Fernando Mendoza be a top
Will Fernando Mendoza be a top 5 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT5-FMENDOZA15
Will Fernando Mendoza be a top 10 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27QBT10-FMENDOZA15
Will Fernando Mendoza be a top 3 fantasy rookie in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27ROOKT3-FMENDOZA15
Cluster 2
Will Jadarian Price be a top
Will Jadarian Price be a top 10 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27RBT10-JPRICE8
Will Jadarian Price be a top 5 fantasy rookie in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27ROOKT5-JPRICE8
Cluster 3
Will Bijan Robinson be a top
Will Bijan Robinson be a top 10 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Bijan Robinson
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27RBT10-BROBINSON7
Will Bijan Robinson be a top 5 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Bijan Robinson
KXNFLFFLEADERTOP-27RBT5-BROBINSON7
Cluster 4
Will Luther Burden III be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Ladd McConkey be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Patrick Mahomes be a top 10 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will De'Zhaun Stribling be a top 10 fantasy rookie in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Jeremiyah Love be a top 3 fantasy rookie in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Oronde Gadsden be a top 10 fantasy TE in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Malik Nabers be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Harold Fannin Jr. be a top 10 fantasy TE in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Caleb Williams be a top 10 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Josh Allen be a top 3 fantasy QB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be a top 10 fantasy WR in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 14% chance that Bijan Robinson finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as a top-5 fantasy running back. Robinson enters the season after three years of NFL experience with the Atlanta Falcons, competing in a crowded field of elite backs for league-wide scoring volume and efficiency. His probability reflects both the talent threshold required to reach top-5 status—a position typically claimed by 5-6 elite performers from 32 teams—and uncertainty about his 2026 offensive environment, coaching changes, and injury status. The market will resolve once fantasy football scoring is finalized in January 2027, with the outcome depending largely on carries, receiving opportunities, and touchdown production relative to other elite backs. Key drivers include the Falcons' offensive scheme changes, whether Robinson maintains a feature-back role, and how competing backs perform across the league.
- ›Robinson's average carries and target share per game during the 2026 season compared to historical levels and other projected top-5 backs
- ›Changes to the Falcons' offensive coaching staff, play-calling philosophy, or running back rotation since the 2025 season
- ›Injury status of Robinson and competing elite RBs (Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and other top-volume backs) throughout the season
- ›Red-zone touches and touchdown opportunities allocated to Robinson versus other Falcons offensive weapons
- ›Robinson's rushing and receiving yards per game in 2026 versus the typical statistical thresholds for top-5 fantasy RB finishes in recent seasons
What moved the line
- Aug 24Jaxon Smith-Njigba↑50pp1→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Bijan Robinson↑27pp16→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Ladd McConkey↑12pp9→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Luther Burden III↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Ladd McConkey↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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