Will New York J record more wins than Las Vegas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$54
20 contracts
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Los Angeles”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Will New York G record more wins than Atlanta in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: New York G
KXNFLH2HWINS-27ATLNYG-NYG
Will New York J record more wins than Las Vegas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: New York J
KXNFLH2HWINS-27NYJLV-NYJ
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles
Will Los Angeles C record more wins than Baltimore in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Los Angeles C
KXNFLH2HWINS-27BALLAC-LAC
Will Los Angeles R record more wins than Seattle in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLH2HWINS-27SEALAR-LAR
Cluster 3
Will Buffalo record more wins than Philadelphia in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 4
Will Chicago record more wins than Cincinnati in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Philadelphia record more wins than Buffalo in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 6
Will Atlanta record more wins than New York G in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Baltimore record more wins than Los Angeles C in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Cincinnati record more wins than Chicago in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Detroit record more wins than Green Bay in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Green Bay record more wins than Detroit in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 11
Will Denver record more wins than Houston in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 12
Will Houston record more wins than Denver in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 13
Will Dallas record more wins than Jacksonville in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 14
Will Jacksonville record more wins than Dallas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 15
Will Kansas City record more wins than New England in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 16
Will New England record more wins than Kansas City in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 17
Will Las Vegas record more wins than New York J in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Cluster 18
Will Seattle record more wins than Los Angeles R in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season
Analysis
This probability indicates that bettors currently view Las Vegas as more likely to win more regular-season games than New York in the 2026-27 NFL season. The 28% figure reflects expectations about relative team strength, roster composition, and coaching quality entering the season. Key drivers of this probability include the current perceived quality gap between the two franchises based on recent performance, offseason roster moves, and draft acquisitions. The most significant uncertainty resolver will be the start of the 2026-27 regular season in September 2026, when actual win-loss records begin to accumulate. Until then, the probability may shift based on injury reports, preseason performance, and any major trades or coaching changes.
- ›Las Vegas's recent playoff history and current roster depth compared to New York's recent performance trajectory
- ›Offseason roster moves, free agency signings, and draft picks for both teams between now and September 2026
- ›Injury status of key players for each team entering the 2026-27 regular season
- ›Head coaching stability and staff changes that could impact team performance
- ›Preseason game outcomes and performance metrics from August-September 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 18Los Angeles C↓23pp44→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Jacksonville↑22pp41→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Buffalo↑19pp44→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Atlanta↓19pp39→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18New York G↑19pp52→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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