Arizona wins by over 9.5 points

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a 9% probability that Arizona will win a football game by more than 9.5 points. The low probability suggests the market expects either a close contest or a Carolina victory. The pricing is driven by Carolina's apparent strength relative to Arizona, as evidenced by the higher prices on Carolina covering smaller spreads (47¢ for a 1.5-point margin versus 9¢ for Arizona's 9.5-point threshold). The market shows flat pricing across Arizona's 9.5, 10.5, and 13.5-point victory thresholds, indicating little confidence in large Arizona wins at any margin. Resolution depends on the actual game outcome, which will settle the related margin contracts once the final score is recorded. Currently, zero 24-hour volume on the Arizona contracts suggests limited recent trading activity to establish these prices.

• ›Carolina's tighter point-spread contracts (1.5-point and 2.5-point wins) are priced significantly higher than Arizona's, indicating market conviction Carolina is the favored team
• ›Arizona's prices remain flat at 9¢ across all three larger margin thresholds (9.5, 10.5, 13.5 points), suggesting minimal differentiation in perceived probability of blowout wins
• ›Zero 24-hour trading volume on Arizona contracts indicates these prices may be stale or reflective of minimal market interest rather than actively formed consensus
• ›Carolina's higher prices on smaller margins imply the market views Carolina either winning outright or winning decisively, not a close game favoring Arizona
• ›The 9% probability for a 9.5-point Arizona win is consistent with treating Arizona as a substantial underdog in this matchup

What moved the line

• Aug 4Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points↑21pp5→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points↑18pp26→44¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Seattle wins by over 3.5 points↑13pp35→48¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Chicago wins by over 2.5 points↑11pp38→49¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Denver wins by over 2.5 points↑9pp53→62¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds