Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader sits at 76% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sun
Spread
63pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$690
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
405 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will New Hampshire Governor winner
Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican party?: Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win
KXNHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party?: Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win
KXNHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM
Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican party?: Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win
KXNHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party?: Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win
KXNHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that New Hampshire will elect Democratic candidates for both its governor and U.S. Senate seat in 2026. Currently priced at 48%, a Democratic sweep is the second-most likely outcome, trailing the scenario where Republicans win the governorship while Democrats retain the Senate seat. The Democratic sweep outcome's relative weakness reflects uncertainty about the gubernatorial race, where Republican incumbency or candidate strength may pose challenges. Key catalysts include the official entry of candidates, primary elections that clarify each party's nominee quality, and major campaign events or shifts in state economic conditions through election day. Polling trends from recognized New Hampshire surveys will provide ongoing signals about which party is gaining momentum.
- ›New Hampshire's recent voting patterns show lean-Democratic federal preferences but swing-state dynamics in gubernatorial races, making both outcomes plausible
- ›Current Republican Senate incumbent's status and whether the seat appears competitive will heavily influence the joint probability
- ›Quality and name recognition of each party's gubernatorial nominee, once finalized, represents a major update point for this market
- ›Economic conditions and national political environment in mid-2026 will shape turnout and candidate viability heading into November
- ›Polling data from credible New Hampshire surveys showing head-to-head matchups will provide empirical signals that traders incorporate into prices
What moved the line
- Sep 18Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win↓25pp75→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win↑13pp60→73¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win↑10pp50→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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