Will the NYC Department of Homeless Services’ average length of stay for single adults in shelter in the full-fiscal Mayor’s Management Report be above 350 days for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
839 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 23% of their title tokens — “Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above” vs “Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 10000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 10,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A10000
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 8000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 8,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A8000
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 6000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 6,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A6000
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 4000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 4,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A4000
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 14000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 14,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A14000
Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 12000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year?: Above 12,000
KXNYCSTAT-2K27-A12000
Cluster 2
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?: At least 8 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.5 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.5 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8.5
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.4 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8.4
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.3 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8.3
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.2 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8.2
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026?: At least 8.1 mph
KXNYCSTAT-BUS26-AL8.1
Cluster 3
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 1
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 170000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026?: Above 170 million
KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A170000000
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 190000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026?: Above 190 million
KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A190000000
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 185000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026?: Above 185 million
KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A185000000
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 180000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026?: Above 180 million
KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A180000000
Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 175000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026?: Above 175 million
KXNYCSTAT-CONG26-A175000000
Cluster 4
Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least
Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 1 before Jan 1, 2029?: At least 1
KXNYCSTAT-GROC29-AL1
Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 2 before Jan 1, 2029?: At least 2
KXNYCSTAT-GROC29-AL2
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that New York City's shelter system will report an average length of stay exceeding 350 days for single adults during fiscal year 2027 in its official Mayor's Management Report. The 56% reading suggests near even odds. Length of stay depends primarily on housing placement rates and shelter intake volumes—faster placements to permanent housing or supportive units would reduce average stay, while continued high demand and limited exits would extend it. The resolution will depend on data published in the Mayor's Management Report, typically released in fall 2027, which will contain the official FY2027 metric. Key pressures include New York City's ongoing housing shortage, shelter system capacity constraints, and the pace of permanent housing placements through various municipal programs.
- ›NYC Department of Homeless Services' single adult shelter census size and trend through FY2027, as reported in monthly management reports
- ›Monthly housing placement rate for single adults exiting shelter into permanent housing or supportive housing programs
- ›Total annual shelter intakes for single adults during the fiscal year period, indicating whether demand remains elevated
- ›Average length of stay trend as of spring 2027 and whether it is tracking above or below 350 days, which would signal likely final outcome
- ›Changes in policy, funding, or program capacity affecting either shelter intake prevention or exit placement velocity during the fiscal year
What moved the line
- Sep 10At least 1↓28pp88→60¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11At least 1↑28pp60→88¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10At least 2↓25pp79→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11At least 2↑25pp54→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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