Will Ohio Governor winner be Republican party and Ohio Senate winner be Republican party
Leader sits at 45% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Hust
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$734
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
405 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ohio Governor winner
Will Ohio Governor winner be Republican party and Ohio Senate winner be Democratic party?: Vivek Ramaswamy and Sherrod Brown win
KXOHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM
Will Ohio Governor winner be Democratic party and Ohio Senate winner be Democratic party?: Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win
KXOHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Will Ohio Governor winner be Democratic party and Ohio Senate winner be Republican party?: Amy Acton and Jon Husted win
KXOHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Will Ohio Governor winner be Republican party and Ohio Senate winner be Republican party?: Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win
KXOHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that both Ohio's gubernatorial and Senate races in 2026 will be won by Republicans—specifically Vivek Ramaswamy for governor and Jon Husted for Senate. At 45%, this reflects a competitive but Republican-favored scenario according to current market pricing. The probability is primarily driven by broader partisan lean in Ohio and candidate-specific factors like incumbent advantages or approval ratings. The Democratic-sweep scenario (38%) remains nearly as likely, suggesting tight races where either party could dominate both contests. Key uncertainties include campaign dynamics, turnout patterns, and any major developments affecting the lead candidates through November 2026. Election Day on November 3, 2026, will definitively resolve all outcomes.
- ›Republican lean in Ohio: Recent statewide elections show the state trending Republican, which would support this joint Republican outcome over Democratic sweeps
- ›Incumbency and candidate positioning: Jon Husted's current status and Vivek Ramaswamy's profile relative to Democratic challengers Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown materially affect both races
- ›Market disaggregation: The 38% probability of Democratic sweep versus 45% Republican sweep indicates markets view these races as genuinely competitive rather than predetermined
- ›Low trading volume on Kalshi: Minimal 24-hour volume on most contracts suggests limited recent price movement, potentially reflecting stable but uncertain expectations
- ›Split-ticket potential: The 7% and 9% probabilities for mixed outcomes show markets assign meaningful probability to voters supporting candidates across party lines in one race
What moved the line
- Sep 17Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win↑23pp7→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win↑6pp38→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win↑6pp39→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Vivek Ramaswamy and Sherrod Brown win↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win↓5pp44→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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