Will AfD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$502
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
400 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will SPD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election
Will SPD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: SPD
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13-SPD
Cluster 2
Will CDU win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election
Will CDU win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: CDU
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13-CDU
Cluster 3
Will Greens win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election
Will Greens win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election?: Greens
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13-GRE
Analysis
The AfD's 24% probability reflects market expectations for their performance in Osnabrück's 2026 mayoral election. This contrasts sharply with the CDU at 55% and SPD at 32%, suggesting the market views the AfD as a significant but not dominant contender. The AfD's position reflects broader German political dynamics, including their recent electoral gains in regional races, but faces headwinds from traditional mainstream-party dominance in mayoral contests and likely opposition coalitions. The election itself will serve as the definitive outcome moment, though candidate announcements, campaign positioning, and any local issues specific to Osnabrück could shift probabilities beforehand. Current trading volume is relatively modest, suggesting limited market participation on this specific race.
- ›CDU contract trades at 55¢ (55% implied probability), nearly 2.3x the AfD's 3¢, indicating market consensus that mainstream candidates remain favored in mayoral contests
- ›SPD and Greens combined represent 35% probability, suggesting anti-AfD coalition possibilities that could further fragment AfD vote share
- ›AfD's 24% probability reflects party's national polling strength but faces structural disadvantage in mayoral elections where local governance experience typically outweighs party affiliation
- ›Trading volume on AfD contract ($17 24h vol) exceeds all other contracts combined, indicating concentrated speculative interest despite low absolute probability
- ›No announced candidate from AfD has been reported in available information, creating uncertainty about campaign viability and local appeal in Osnabrück
What moved the line
- Aug 9SPD↑10pp18→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Greens↓4pp5→1¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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