Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$200
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 26, 2027
444 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Mark Sutcliffe
KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-MSUT
Cluster 2
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Alex Lawson
KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-ALAW
Cluster 3
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Jeff Leiper
KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-JLEI
Cluster 4
Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election
Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?: Neil Saravanamuttoo
KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-NSAR
Analysis
Neil Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability reflects prediction market expectations for his performance in the 2026 Ottawa mayoral race. This places him as a distant third-place candidate behind incumbent Mark Sutcliffe (52%) and city councillor Jeff Leiper (17%), with low trading volume suggesting limited market confidence in either direction. The probability reflects Saravanamuttoo's current name recognition, campaign infrastructure, and fundraising position relative to frontrunners. Key uncertainties include whether Sutcliffe faces unexpected scandals or dissatisfaction that could fragment the incumbent vote, or whether Saravanamuttoo can build sufficient campaign momentum and media presence to establish himself as a credible alternative. The race resolution date in October 2026 will depend heavily on campaign performance between now and election day, voter turnout patterns, and any major local issues that emerge.
- ›Sutcliffe holds a 30-percentage-point lead, indicating markets view him as the dominant candidate with structural advantages as incumbent
- ›Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability is roughly double Leiper's 17%, suggesting markets differentiate between second-tier candidates based on available information
- ›Trading volume of $400 in 24 hours on the Saravanamuttoo contract is relatively modest, indicating limited speculative interest or uncertainty among sophisticated traders
- ›The combined probability of non-Sutcliffe candidates (48%) suggests reasonable market uncertainty about whether the incumbent can win outright
- ›Campaign activity, endorsements, and media coverage between July 2026 and the October election will likely shift these probabilities significantly
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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