Will Eva von Angern win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$100
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 6, 2027
410 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sven Schulze win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election
Cluster 2
Will Ulrich Siegmund win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Eva von Angern becomes the next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt following the state election scheduled for 2026. At 21%, von Angern ranks third among tracked candidates, behind Ulrich Siegmund (35%) and Sven Schulze (27%). Her positioning reflects the fragmented nature of Saxony-Anhalt politics, where coalition-building after election results will determine the final outcome. The probability could shift based on two main factors: changes in polling data as the election approaches, and post-election negotiations between parties to form a governing coalition. The election itself, when held in 2026, will be the primary resolution event that clarifies whether von Angern can secure the position through either direct electoral strength or as a coalition compromise candidate.
- ›Von Angern's current contract price of 14¢ reflects lower market confidence compared to Siegmund (35¢) and Schulze (27¢), suggesting perceived structural disadvantages in coalition or polling dynamics
- ›Saxony-Anhalt elections depend heavily on coalition mathematics after voting; von Angern's probability depends partly on which parties gain seats and whether her party would be included in winning coalitions
- ›Polling trends and party performance in upcoming months will directly influence probability adjustments, as markets incorporate new survey data closer to the election date
- ›The three leading candidates collectively represent 73% probability, indicating substantial uncertainty about which candidate will ultimately lead the government
- ›Low trading volume on von Angern's contract ($0 in 24h volume at time of observation) suggests limited market activity and potential for probability shifts as interest increases
What moved the line
- Aug 17Ulrich Siegmund↓5pp42→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (42% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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