What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
7 Conservatives and 2 Libera
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
946 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R0-0
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that the Supreme Court will have 6 conservative justices and 3 liberal justices when Trump's presidency ends in January 2029. The 72% probability reflects expectations about potential vacancies and confirmation outcomes during his term. Several factors drive this probability: current vacancy predictions on the conservative and liberal wings, confirmation dynamics in the Senate, and the ages and health status of sitting justices. The primary catalyst for resolution will be actual vacancies occurring during Trump's term—whenever a sitting justice retires or passes away. Secondary catalysts include Senate composition changes after the 2026 midterms, which could affect confirmation likelihood. The runner-up outcome at 11% suggests significant uncertainty remains about whether Trump will have the opportunity to make any appointments at all, or whether circumstances could lead to different court compositions than the base case predicts.
- ›Current age and publicly disclosed health status of all nine sitting justices, particularly conservative justices Alito (75), Thomas (77), and liberal justices Sotomayor (72) and Kagan (65)
- ›Senate composition and confirmation capacity—whether Republicans maintain sufficient votes to confirm Trump appointees through 2029
- ›Trump administration appointment strategy and whether nominated candidates pass Senate scrutiny
- ›Actual vacancy timing—whether any justice retires, passes away, or recuses themselves before Trump's term ends
- ›Historical precedent for vacancies during four-year presidential terms and typical retirement patterns among aging justices
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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