What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Leader sits at 68% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
7 Conservatives and 2 Libera
Spread
54pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
851 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R0-0
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will have six conservative and three liberal justices by the end of Trump's term, reflecting expectations about potential vacancies and retirements. This probability is driven by the ages and health statuses of current justices, particularly the liberal wing which includes older members more likely to retire or pass away during the next four years. The main downward pressure comes from the possibility that no vacancies occur, or that vacancies among conservative justices offset typical retirements. The single biggest resolution factor will be actual vacancies on the bench—either through scheduled retirements announced by justices themselves or through unexpected deaths. Any announcement of a sitting justice stepping down would immediately clarify the composition trajectory.
- ›Current ages and public health disclosures of the three liberal justices (Sotomayor 70, Kagan 66, Jackson 56) versus conservative justices, affecting retirement probability timelines
- ›Historical vacancy rates during presidential terms; the Trump administration 2017-2021 saw three vacancies, but future frequency is uncertain
- ›Whether any sitting justices announce retirements or step down during Trump's 2025-2029 term, which would be the primary catalyst for composition changes
- ›Confirmation dynamics and Senate composition if vacancies do occur, affecting whether nominees are successfully seated
- ›Current 6-3 conservative majority baseline and whether attrition among conservative justices could offset changes in the liberal wing
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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