Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets assign a 35% probability to Steve Higgins being named as Lorne Michaels' successor at Saturday Night Live, reflecting traders' assessment of whether the current head writer will be promoted to the role. This probability is driven by Higgins' deep institutional knowledge and tenure at the show, but tempered by uncertainty about whether NBC and Studio 8H will pursue an external candidate or an alternative internal figure like Tina Fey (33% probability). The outcome depends on whether SNL's executive leadership seeks continuity versus a fresh creative direction. Resolution occurs when NBC officially announces Michaels' replacement, likely sometime after the show's seasonal renewal decisions are finalized. Current trading volume on Higgins' contract is minimal, suggesting limited recent conviction shifts among traders.

• ›Steve Higgins has been head writer since 2013 and represents the continuity-focused path, while Tina Fey is nearly tied at 33%, indicating material uncertainty about whether NBC prefers external star power or internal promotion
• ›No official announcement has been made regarding Michaels' retirement timeline or succession plan; markets are pricing speculative odds ahead of any formal company guidance
• ›Trading volume across all five named candidates is extremely low (only Tina Fey shows $24 in 24-hour volume), suggesting this remains a niche prediction market with limited liquidity and potential for sharp repricing upon news
• ›The four other candidates collectively price at approximately 32%, distributed among Bill Hader (7¢), Colin Jost (13¢), Kenan Thompson (6¢), and others, showing meaningful tail risk to the top two favorites
• ›Michaels' successor selection will likely hinge on whether SNL emphasizes institutional continuity versus celebrity draw and outside perspective

What moved the line

• Sep 17Tina Fey↓33pp39→6¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Tina Fey↑30pp6→36¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 12Tina Fey↑10pp29→39¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds