Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL
Leader sits at 39% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Steve Higgins
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Tina Fey
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Seth Meyers
KXSNL-28-SMEY
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Steve Higgins
KXSNL-28-SH
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Tina Fey
KXSNL-28-TFEY
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Maya Rudolp
KXSNL-28-MR
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Colin Jost
KXSNL-28-CJ
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Kenan Thompson
KXSNL-28-KT
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets currently assess a 43% chance that a specific individual will be formally announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at Saturday Night Live. The succession question reflects uncertainty about NBC's leadership transition at one of television's longest-running shows. The probability level could shift based on announcements from NBC leadership, public statements from potential candidates, or reporting about internal decision timelines. A formal announcement from NBC or confirmation of Michaels' retirement timeline would likely serve as the primary catalyst for resolution. Market participants appear divided on the likely successor, with the leading candidate at 43% and the runner-up at 26%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the outcome rather than consensus.
- ›Lorne Michaels has not publicly announced a retirement date or timeline for succession at SNL
- ›The identity of the leading candidate at 43% probability has not been confirmed through market data provided here
- ›NBC has not made an official statement designating an heir apparent or succession plan for the show's leadership
- ›SNL's production and format decisions influence both the pool of potential successors and market participants' assessments of each candidate's viability
- ›Historical precedent shows SNL leadership transitions are typically announced well before implementation, creating multiple opportunities for new information to change market odds
What moved the line
- May 3Steve Higgins↓12pp43→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Steve Higgins↑8pp31→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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