When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35
Leader sits at 77% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
69pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
75 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35
Analysis
The 89% probability reflects market consensus that SpaceX will launch the Dragon CRS-35 resupply mission to the International Space Station before November 1, 2026. The high confidence is supported by SpaceX's demonstrated track record with Dragon cargo missions and typical launch cadences, though the lower prices for earlier windows (13–42¢ through August) suggest lingering uncertainty about near-term scheduling. Launch timing depends on ISS operational needs, payload readiness, and weather constraints. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the launch date and any delays or technical issues that emerge during pre-flight preparation. A launch confirmation in late July or early August would likely shift near-term probabilities upward significantly.
- ›SpaceX has completed 34 Dragon CRS missions with a high success rate, establishing baseline reliability for orbital resupply operations
- ›The November 1 deadline provides approximately four months from today, a window consistent with typical cargo mission scheduling intervals
- ›Earlier August windows trade at substantially lower prices (13–42¢), indicating the market expects delays beyond early summer or reflects real constraints not yet publicly disclosed
- ›ISS resupply missions are coordinated with station operations, crew rotations, and cargo priorities—external scheduling pressures beyond SpaceX's control
- ›Official launch date announcement from SpaceX or NASA would be the most direct resolution of current timing uncertainty
What moved the line
- Aug 12Before Nov 1, 2026↓3pp76→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (77% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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