Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
86 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Levi Sebree be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will Levi Sebree be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Levi Sebree
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-LEV
Cluster 2
Will Amanda Batula be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will Amanda Batula be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Amanda Batula
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-AMA
Cluster 3
Will Ben Waddell be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will Ben Waddell be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Ben Waddell
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-BEN
Cluster 4
Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Dara Levitan
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-DAR
Cluster 5
Will Meija Moreno be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will Meija Moreno be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Meija Moreno
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-MEI
Cluster 6
Will West Wilson be cast in Summer House: Season 11
Will West Wilson be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: West Wilson
KXSUMMERHOUSECAST-27-WES
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Dara Levitan will be cast in Summer House Season 11. At 26%, the market currently views her casting as somewhat unlikely but plausible. The probability is driven by casting patterns from previous seasons, her visibility within the broader reality TV ecosystem, and whether production decisions have already been finalized. The main catalyst determining the outcome will be the official cast announcement for Season 11, which typically occurs weeks before the season's air date and would definitively resolve this question. Factors like her current relationship status, involvement in other Bravo projects, and scheduling availability may influence casting decisions. Market pricing suggests traders assign meaningful uncertainty to her inclusion, indicating that either her availability is unclear or production hasn't publicly committed to her participation yet.
- ›Official Summer House Season 11 cast announcement will provide definitive resolution to this question
- ›Dara's current involvement in other Bravo or television projects may conflict with or support Summer House filming schedules
- ›Her relationship status and on-screen dynamics with existing cast members factor into casting decisions
- ›Prior appearance frequency on Summer House and related Bravo programming suggests baseline expectations for her involvement
- ›Production typically announces Season 11 cast 2-4 weeks before premiere air date, creating a near-term resolution window
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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