Will Drake announce a new tour this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$335
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year
Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year?: Justin Bieber
KXTOUR-27-JUS
Cluster 2
Will Drake announce a new tour this year
Will Drake announce a new tour this year?: Drake
KXTOUR-27-DRA
Cluster 3
Will Doja Cat announce a new tour this year
Will Doja Cat announce a new tour this year?: Doja Cat
KXTOUR-27-DOJ
Cluster 4
Will The Weeknd announce a new tour this year
Will The Weeknd announce a new tour this year?: The Weeknd
KXTOUR-27-WEE
Cluster 5
Will Adele announce a new tour this year
Will Adele announce a new tour this year?: Adele
KXTOUR-27-ADE
Cluster 6
Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year
Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year?: Bad Bunny
KXTOUR-27-BAD
Cluster 7
Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year
Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year?: Beyoncé
KXTOUR-27-BEY
Cluster 8
Will Coldplay announce a new tour this year
Will Coldplay announce a new tour this year?: Coldplay
KXTOUR-27-COL
Cluster 9
Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year
Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year?: Dua Lipa
KXTOUR-27-DUA
Cluster 10
Will Eminem announce a new tour this year
Will Eminem announce a new tour this year?: Eminem
KXTOUR-27-EMI
Cluster 11
Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year
Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year?: Frank Ocean
KXTOUR-27-FRA
Cluster 12
Will Kendrick Lamar announce a new tour this year
Will Kendrick Lamar announce a new tour this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KXTOUR-27-KEN
Cluster 13
Will Lady Gaga announce a new tour this year
Will Lady Gaga announce a new tour this year?: Lady Gaga
KXTOUR-27-LAD
Cluster 14
Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year
Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year?: Rihanna
KXTOUR-27-RIH
Cluster 15
Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year
Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXTOUR-27-SAB
Cluster 16
Will SZA announce a new tour this year
Will SZA announce a new tour this year?: SZA
KXTOUR-27-SZA
Cluster 17
Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year
Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year?: Taylor Swift
KXTOUR-27-TAY
Cluster 18
Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year
Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year?: Travis Scott
KXTOUR-27-TRA
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Drake will announce a new tour before December 31, 2026. At 33%, it suggests meaningful uncertainty, roughly split between those expecting an announcement and those skeptical. The probability is shaped by Drake's touring patterns—he has varied significantly in tour frequency across recent years—and the typical timing of major hip-hop artist announcements, which often cluster in Q3 and Q4. The biggest catalyst would be any Drake social media announcement, official statement from his team, or appearance at a major music event where tour plans might be revealed. Several comparable artists show higher probabilities (Travis Scott at 63%, Nicki Minaj at 53%), suggesting the broader market sees Drake as less likely to tour this year than certain peers. Resolution depends on an explicit announcement through official channels, not speculation or rumors.
- ›Drake toured extensively in 2022-2023 but has had limited touring activity in 2024-2025, making prediction frequency uncertain
- ›No official announcement or pre-announcement hints have been reported as of July 2026
- ›Comparable artists show materially higher probabilities, with Travis Scott at 63% and Nicki Minaj at 53%
- ›The resolution window narrows significantly after September, making Q3 announcements the most likely catalyst
- ›Kalshi contract volume for Drake ($431 in 24h) is substantially higher than most comparable artists, indicating stronger market interest
What moved the line
- Sep 12Travis Scott↓35pp63→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Beyoncé↓32pp37→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12The Weeknd↓31pp39→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Coldplay↓25pp35→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12SZA↓19pp25→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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