Will Drake announce a new tour this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will KATSEYE announce a new tour this year
Will KATSEYE announce a new tour this year?: KATSEYE
KXTOUR-27-KAT
Cluster 2
Will Nicki Minaj announce a new tour this year
Will Nicki Minaj announce a new tour this year?: Nicki Minaj
KXTOUR-27-NIC
Cluster 3
Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year
Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXTOUR-27-SAB
Cluster 4
Will The Weeknd announce a new tour this year
Will The Weeknd announce a new tour this year?: The Weeknd
KXTOUR-27-WEE
Cluster 5
Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year
Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year?: Rihanna
KXTOUR-27-RIH
Cluster 6
Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year
Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year?: Frank Ocean
KXTOUR-27-FRA
Cluster 7
Will Kanye West / Ye announce a new tour this year
Will Kanye West / Ye announce a new tour this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KXTOUR-27-KAN
Cluster 8
Will Adele announce a new tour this year
Will Adele announce a new tour this year?: Adele
KXTOUR-27-ADE
Cluster 9
Will Drake announce a new tour this year
Will Drake announce a new tour this year?: Drake
KXTOUR-27-DRA
Cluster 10
Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year
Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year?: Justin Bieber
KXTOUR-27-JUS
Cluster 11
Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year
Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year?: Beyoncé
KXTOUR-27-BEY
Cluster 12
Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year
Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year?: Taylor Swift
KXTOUR-27-TAY
Cluster 13
Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year
Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year?: Travis Scott
KXTOUR-27-TRA
Cluster 14
Will Kendrick Lamar announce a new tour this year
Will Kendrick Lamar announce a new tour this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KXTOUR-27-KEN
Cluster 15
Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year
Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year?: Bad Bunny
KXTOUR-27-BAD
Cluster 16
Will SZA announce a new tour this year
Will SZA announce a new tour this year?: SZA
KXTOUR-27-SZA
Cluster 17
Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year
Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year?: Dua Lipa
KXTOUR-27-DUA
Cluster 18
Will Doja Cat announce a new tour this year
Will Doja Cat announce a new tour this year?: Doja Cat
KXTOUR-27-DOJ
Cluster 19
Will Eminem announce a new tour this year
Will Eminem announce a new tour this year?: Eminem
KXTOUR-27-EMI
Cluster 20
Will Jay-Z announce a new tour this year
Will Jay-Z announce a new tour this year?: Jay-Z
KXTOUR-27-JAY
Analysis
This reflects a moderate likelihood that Drake will publicly announce a new tour sometime in 2026. At 45%, the market is pricing roughly even odds relative to uncertainty. Drake's touring history shows regular intervals between major announcements, typically spanning several years. The probability hinges on whether he releases new album material this year—tour announcements traditionally follow new music releases or creative cycles. Key factors influencing this outcome include whether Drake drops a new album, his recent public activity and health status, and typical industry timing for artist announcements. A major catalog release or festival headlining confirmation would be the most direct catalyst for resolving this upward or downward. Compared to peer artists on similar markets, Drake's 45% sits between Beyoncé (47%) and Bad Bunny (42%), suggesting moderate but not exceptional tour announcement likelihood for 2026.
- ›Drake's last major tour (Certified Lover Boy tour) ended in 2022; typical gap between his tour announcements is 2-4 years
- ›New album release or surprise project would substantially increase announcement probability; no confirmed 2026 album has been announced as of May
- ›Drake's public appearances and social media activity level in recent months suggest baseline career momentum but lack of imminent tour signals
- ›Comparison to peer artists shows varied probabilities (Bieber 80%, Beyoncé 47%, Bad Bunny 42%), indicating touring patterns differ significantly by artist
- ›Festival headlining slots or leaked tour dates would provide early indication; May-June announcements are typical timing for major artist fall/winter tours
What moved the line
- May 7Justin Bieber↓23pp80→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Beyoncé↑16pp31→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 7The Weeknd↑7pp55→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 7KATSEYE↓5pp84→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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