Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 37% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
At least 2
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
146 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump veto at least
Will Trump veto at least 1 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 1
KXVETOCOUNT-27JAN-1
Will Trump veto at least 5 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 5
KXVETOCOUNT-27JAN-5
Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 4
KXVETOCOUNT-27JAN-4
Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 3
KXVETOCOUNT-27JAN-3
Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 2
KXVETOCOUNT-27JAN-2
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Trump will veto at least 3 bills before January 1, 2027. The 88% probability suggests market participants view this outcome as highly likely given Trump's historical veto record and the legislative landscape. The current Republican congressional majority and Trump's stated policy priorities would influence veto likelihood—a unified government typically faces fewer veto-triggering scenarios, which could lower this probability, while increased legislative opposition or bills conflicting with stated positions would raise it. The key driver of resolution will be actual legislative activity in the second half of 2026, when Congress passes bills requiring presidential action. With 8 months remaining, sufficient time exists for 3+ veto opportunities, though the exact number depends on Congress sending bills Trump opposes and whether he uses the veto power rather than accepting compromise.
- ›Trump's historical veto rate during his first term (10 vetoes across 4 years) compared to typical presidential patterns
- ›The current composition of Congress and likelihood of bills that conflict with Trump administration policy priorities
- ›Legislative activity levels expected from June through December 2026, including appropriations bills and potential contentious legislation
- ›Whether Trump uses veto power or accepts congressional compromise bills without exercising the veto pen
- ›The definition of "bills" in the contract and whether pocket vetoes or other executive rejections count toward the threshold
What moved the line
- Aug 3At least 1↓6pp46→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3At least 3↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4At least 2↓3pp28→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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