Will Brad Patty be the Republican nominee for MO-05
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$238
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Hartzell Gray 3rd be the Democratic nominee for MO-04
Will Hartzell Gray 3rd be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?: Hartzell Gray 3rd
KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-H3RD
Cluster 2
Will Nathanael Schultz be the Republican nominee for MO-06
Will Nathanael Schultz be the Republican nominee for MO-06?: Nathanael Schultz
KXMOPRIMARY-06R26-NSCH
Cluster 3
Will Nathan Hall Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06
Will Nathan Hall Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06?: Nathan Hall Willett
KXMOPRIMARY-06R26-NWIL
Cluster 4
Will Andrew Jones be the Republican nominee for MO-01
Will Andrew Jones be the Republican nominee for MO-01?: Andrew Jones
KXMOPRIMARY-01R26-AJON
Cluster 5
Will Paul Berry III be the Republican nominee for MO-01
Will Paul Berry III be the Republican nominee for MO-01?: Paul Berry III
KXMOPRIMARY-01R26-PIII
Cluster 6
Will Fred Wellman be the Democratic nominee for MO-02
Will Fred Wellman be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Fred Wellman
KXMOPRIMARY-02D26-FWEL
Cluster 7
Will Joan VonDras be the Democratic nominee for MO-02
Will Joan VonDras be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Joan VonDras
KXMOPRIMARY-02D26-JVON
Cluster 8
Will Timothy D Bilash be the Democratic nominee for MO-02
Will Timothy D Bilash be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Timothy D Bilash
KXMOPRIMARY-02D26-TBIL
Cluster 9
Will Ann Wagner be the Republican nominee for MO-02
Will Ann Wagner be the Republican nominee for MO-02?: Ann Wagner
KXMOPRIMARY-02R26-AWAG
Cluster 10
Will Brandon Wilkinson be the Republican nominee for MO-02
Will Brandon Wilkinson be the Republican nominee for MO-02?: Brandon Wilkinson
KXMOPRIMARY-02R26-BWIL
Cluster 11
Will Bethany E Mann be the Democratic nominee for MO-03
Will Bethany E Mann be the Democratic nominee for MO-03?: Bethany E Mann
KXMOPRIMARY-03D26-BMAN
Cluster 12
Will Paul T Wilson be the Democratic nominee for MO-03
Will Paul T Wilson be the Democratic nominee for MO-03?: Paul T Wilson
KXMOPRIMARY-03D26-PWIL
Cluster 13
Will Bob Onder be the Republican nominee for MO-03
Will Bob Onder be the Republican nominee for MO-03?: Bob Onder
KXMOPRIMARY-03R26-BOND
Cluster 14
Will Ashleigh Rogers be the Democratic nominee for MO-04
Will Ashleigh Rogers be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?: Ashleigh Rogers
KXMOPRIMARY-04D26-AROG
Analysis
Brad Patty's 31% probability reflects the current betting assessment of his chances to secure the Republican nomination for Missouri's 5th congressional district. This moderate probability suggests meaningful competition in the race. The nomination outcome will be shaped by factors including candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party leadership and local influencers, turnout patterns in primary voting, and the number of viable competitors splitting the Republican field. The Republican primary election date will ultimately resolve this market. Until then, significant shifts in polling, campaign financing disclosures, or candidate dropout announcements could substantially move the probability in either direction. Comparative nominating contests in adjacent Missouri districts show varying competitive dynamics, suggesting MO-05's specific electoral landscape will determine the outcome.
- ›Fundraising and cash-on-hand reported in official FEC filings through primary season
- ›Number and strength of competing Republican candidates remaining in the MO-05 race
- ›Primary election date and voter turnout levels among registered Republicans
- ›Endorsements from state party officials, incumbent representatives, and major conservative organizations
- ›Polling data from internal campaigns and public surveys conducted among likely primary voters
What moved the line
- Jun 20Bob Onder↑46pp47→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Nathan Hall Willett↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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