Will Greg Stanton be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+4pp
37h ago
24h volume
$14K
8 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jamie Raskin be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 2
Will Morgan McGarvey be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Lizzie Fletcher be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 4
Will Ted Lieu be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 5
Will Jason Crow be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Greg Stanton be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 7
Will Ami Bera be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Cluster 8
Will Sharice Davids be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Greg Stanton, an Arizona congressman, becomes chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by early March 2027. The DCCC chair position opens periodically and involves significant responsibility for coordinating party strategy in House races. Current pricing at 7 cents suggests relatively low confidence in Stanton for this role compared to other named candidates, who are priced identically. The main drivers of this probability would be public announcements from party leadership about the selection process, endorsements from influential Democrats, and any statements from Stanton himself about his interest. The resolution hinges on either an official announcement of the next DCCC chair or the passage of the March 2 deadline. Multiple Democratic candidates appear equally weighted in the market, indicating genuine uncertainty about the selection outcome.
- ›No incumbent chair has been announced as being replaced or stepping down as of late August 2026
- ›Five Democratic congressional figures are priced identically at 7 cents, suggesting equal market assessment of their candidacy
- ›The DCCC chair selection typically involves coordination between party leadership rather than a competitive election process
- ›Greg Stanton has not made public statements indicating interest in or pursuit of the DCCC chair role
- ›The resolution deadline is approximately six months away, providing limited time for campaign activity or formal announcements
What moved the line
- Aug 24Jamie Raskin↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Ted Lieu↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Jason Crow↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Lizzie Fletcher↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Greg Stanton↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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