What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 95% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 45 million
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above 45.5 million
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$289
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 14, 2026
49 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 4
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46500000.0
Analysis
Markets are pricing an extremely high likelihood that United Airlines will report passenger volumes exceeding 45 million for Q2 2026, with progressively lower probabilities for higher thresholds (96% for 45M, 64% for 47.5M, 39% for 48M). This reflects expectations about summer travel demand and United's capacity deployment. Q2 historically captures spring break and early summer travel, typically the industry's strongest quarter. The probability distribution suggests markets expect robust but not exceptional performance—comfortably above the 45M floor but uncertain whether United will push toward 48M+ passengers. Resolution depends entirely on United's Q2 2026 earnings report, when the company files financial statements disclosing detailed passenger metrics. Factors that could shift these probabilities include economic conditions affecting discretionary travel, fuel costs, competitive capacity additions, and labor availability during peak season.
- ›Q2 2026 represents peak summer travel season; historical seasonality indicates higher passenger volumes in this quarter compared to annual averages
- ›The probability cliff between 45M (96%) and 48M (39%) suggests markets see moderate upside risk rather than confidence in high-end capacity utilization
- ›United's actual fleet deployment, available seat miles, and load factors during Q2 will mechanically determine passenger volumes reported in earnings
- ›Macroeconomic conditions and employment rates in 2026 will influence discretionary leisure travel demand, a major component of Q2 traffic
- ›The resolution date is fixed: United's Q2 2026 earnings call and financial filings will provide exact passenger data, eliminating all current uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 26Above 47.5 million↑5pp73→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 48.5 million↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 48.5 million↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 48 million↑4pp49→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 45 million↑3pp91→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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