What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Top contract
71¢
$336 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call” vs “Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 4”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Stablecoin / Stable Coin
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-STAB
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Bitcoin
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BITC
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Stash
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-STAS
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Cash Back / Cashback
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-CASH
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Unprofitable
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-UNPR
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Bank
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BANK
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Google
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-GOOG
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Biometric
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BIOM
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Ads ID
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-ADS
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-REGU
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: College
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-COLL
What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Blue Owl
KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26MAY05-BLUE
Cluster 2
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 4
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48500000.0
What moved the line
- Apr 28Stash↑15pp15→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Unprofitable↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Stash↑12pp37→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Cash Back / Cashback↑12pp49→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Bank↑12pp32→44¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.