Will Stranger Things be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$445
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will His & Hers be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list
Cluster 2
Will The Pitt be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list
Cluster 3
Will The Odyssey be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Cluster 4
Will Tom Holland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list
Cluster 5
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list
Cluster 6
Will Michael be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Will Michael be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list?: Michael
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-MIC
Cluster 7
Will Stranger Things be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list
Cluster 8
Will One Battle After Another be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Cluster 9
Will Toy Story 5 be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Cluster 10
Will Project Hail Mary be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Cluster 11
Will Obsession be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list
Cluster 12
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list
Cluster 13
Will Lionel Messi be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list
Cluster 14
Will Jalen Brunson be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list
Analysis
This market tracks whether Stranger Things will rank as the most-searched TV show globally according to Google's annual Year in Search 2026 list, currently priced at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects that Stranger Things faces substantial competition from other major television properties and cultural phenomena. Key drivers include whether the show releases new content in 2026, the extent of ongoing fan engagement, and how search volume compares to competing shows during the year. The market will resolve in December 2026 when Google publishes its official Year in Search rankings, at which point the actual ranking data becomes public and verifiable. Until then, uncertainty stems from unpredictability of global search trends, competing shows' release schedules, and the cumulative search behavior of billions of users worldwide.
- ›Stranger Things' official release schedule in 2026 and content volume—new season availability directly impacts search volume
- ›Competing TV shows' release timing and cultural moments in 2026 that could generate larger search volumes
- ›Historical search patterns showing whether Stranger Things maintains consistent year-over-year interest or has declined since peak seasons
- ›Google's Year in Search 2026 publication in December as the definitive resolution source with publicly available rankings
- ›Broader entertainment landscape shifts and potential competing entertainment phenomena that capture global search attention
What moved the line
- Aug 8Erling Haaland↓7pp40→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3The Odyssey↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5The Odyssey↑6pp33→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Obsession↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Erling Haaland↑4pp33→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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