Will Iowa Governor winner be Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader sits at 43% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Zach Lahn and Ashley Hinson win
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Rob Sand and Josh Turek win
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
483 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Iowa Governor winner
Will Iowa Governor winner be Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Republican party?: Rob Sand and Ashley Hinson win
KXIASENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Will Iowa Governor winner be Republican party and Iowa Senate winner be Republican party?: Zach Lahn and Ashley Hinson win
KXIASENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Will Iowa Governor winner be Republican party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic party?: Zach Lahn and Josh Turek win
KXIASENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM
Will Iowa Governor winner be Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic party?: Rob Sand and Josh Turek win
KXIASENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that both Iowa's next governor and U.S. Senate winner will be Democrats. Currently priced at 49%, it reflects the leading outcome in a four-way race covering all partisan combinations for these two offices. Iowa's political leanings have shifted rightward in recent cycles, making split-ticket outcomes more probable than a Democratic sweep. The price reflects uncertainty around 2026 candidate strength and prevailing economic conditions closer to the election. Key dynamics include Democratic candidate viability in a state trending Republican, and whether any national political environment shift occurs before November 2026. Election Day 2026 will resolve this uncertainty.
- ›Iowa has voted Republican in the last three presidential cycles (2016, 2020), establishing a baseline Republican lean in statewide elections
- ›Democratic probability of 49% implies markets estimate Republicans slightly favored but without overwhelming dominance in this two-office combination
- ›The Republican-sweep scenario (49%) and Democratic-sweep scenario (36%) are the market's two largest outcomes, suggesting straight-ticket voting patterns dominate
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrates on the mixed outcomes ($1,900 on Sand-Hinson), indicating this contract attracts more active hedging or opinion flow than pure outcomes
- ›November 2026 general election date represents the sole resolution mechanism with no intervening primaries or major scheduled events before then that typically shift statewide race expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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