Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026
Leader sits at 38% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
438 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Texas Senate
Will Texas Senate be James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?: James Talarico and Susan Collins
KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV-TAL-COL
Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?: Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV-PAX-COL
Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Troy Jackson wins for Nov 2026?: Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
KXMETXCOMBO-26NOVB-PAX-JAC
Will Texas Senate be James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Troy Jackson wins for Nov 2026?: James Talarico and Troy Jackson
KXMETXCOMBO-26NOVB-TAL-JAC
Analysis
This represents the market-implied probability that Republican Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate seat and Democrat Susan Collins wins the Maine Senate seat in November 2026. The 35% price reflects that markets currently see a "Ken Paxton and Graham Platner" outcome (35%) as more likely than the Paxton-Collins combination (24%). The Texas race outcome and Maine race outcome are independent events, so their joint probability depends heavily on which candidates advance through primaries and how competitive each general election appears. Collins' political positioning in Maine and Paxton's standing in Texas polling will be key drivers. The main uncertainty resolves through the November 2026 general election; near-term movement will likely track primary results, campaign developments, and any polling updates through summer and fall 2026.
- ›Ken Paxton's approval and standing among Texas Republican primary voters and general election swing voters; his political trajectory since 2024
- ›Susan Collins' re-election viability in Maine relative to her Democratic challenger; her past electoral performance in the state
- ›The relative strength and funding of each candidate's campaign infrastructure heading into the general election
- ›Turnout and voter preference patterns in both Texas and Maine during the 2026 cycle, particularly among independents and moderates
- ›Primary calendar and candidate consolidation in each state; whether other candidates drop out and reallocate support before November 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 17Ken Paxton and Susan Collins↑3pp27→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20James Talarico and Troy Jackson↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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