Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 55% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
55%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Benedict” vs “Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Benedict
Will Benedict Cumberbatch perform as Doctor Strange in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-BEN
Will Benedict Wong perform as Wong in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-BENE
Cluster 2
Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 3
Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 4
Will Tobey Maguire perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 5
Will Evangeline Lilly perform as the Wasp in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 6
Will Don Cheadle perform as James Rhodes / War Machine in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 7
Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 8
Will Hailee Steinfeld perform as Kate Bishop in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 9
Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-MAR
Cluster 10
Will Teyonah Parris perform as Monica Rambeau in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 11
Will Kathryn Newton perform as Cassie Lang in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 12
Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-JON
Cluster 13
Will Brie Larson perform as Captain Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 14
Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-HAL
Cluster 15
Will Andrew Garfield perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 16
Will Xochitl Gomez perform as America Chavez in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 17
Will Iman Vellani perform as Ms. Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 18
Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-RYA
Cluster 19
Will Gwyneth Paltrow perform as Pepper Potts in Avengers: Doomsday
Analysis
This probability estimates a 53% chance that Jonathan Majors will appear as Kang in the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday film. The assessment reflects uncertainty following Majors' legal challenges in 2023-2024, which created doubt about his continued involvement in major MCU projects despite no official studio announcement either way. The main factors driving this mid-range probability are the lack of formal confirmation from Marvel Studios and the actor's recent legal resolutions, balanced against the character's central role in the multiverse storyline and Majors' continued industry presence. Official casting announcements from Marvel or production updates during filming would provide the clearest resolution point, likely occurring sometime before the film's anticipated 2026-2027 release window.
- ›Marvel Studios has made no public statement confirming or denying Majors' involvement as Kang since his 2023 legal case resolution
- ›Majors has not been publicly associated with major MCU projects announced after his legal issues, creating ambiguity about his status
- ›Kang is essential to the multiverse narrative arc established in prior MCU films, creating narrative pressure to include or explicitly recast the character
- ›The comparison contracts show Tobey Maguire (70¢) rated higher than Majors (53¢) for Avengers appearances, suggesting market participants view established returning actors as more certain
- ›Production and casting details have remained unusually sparse relative to typical Marvel promotional timelines
What moved the line
- May 6Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan↑17pp24→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts↓16pp69→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp↓15pp33→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp↑12pp21→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm↑10pp28→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.