Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 54% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
54%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
494 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Benedict” vs “Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Benedict
Will Benedict Cumberbatch perform as Doctor Strange in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-BEN
Will Benedict Wong perform as Wong in Avengers: Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-BENE
Cluster 2
Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 3
Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 4
Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 5
Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-JON
Cluster 6
Will Tobey Maguire perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 7
Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-MAR
Cluster 8
Will Andrew Garfield perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 9
Will Hailee Steinfeld perform as Kate Bishop in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 10
Will Gwyneth Paltrow perform as Pepper Potts in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 11
Will Iman Vellani perform as Ms. Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 12
Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 13
Will Evangeline Lilly perform as the Wasp in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 14
Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday
Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm?
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONDOOMSDAY-HAL
Cluster 15
Will Brie Larson perform as Captain Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 16
Will Teyonah Parris perform as Monica Rambeau in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 17
Will Xochitl Gomez perform as America Chavez in Avengers: Doomsday
Cluster 18
Will Don Cheadle perform as James Rhodes / War Machine in Avengers: Doomsday
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Jonathan Majors will reprise his role as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday, scheduled for 2026. At 58%, it indicates meaningful uncertainty about his involvement despite his established place in the MCU's multiverse storyline. The market probability is driven by two competing considerations: Majors' criminal conviction in December 2023 and subsequent industry recalibration, balanced against Marvel's substantial creative and financial investment in his character arc across multiple projects. The primary catalyst that would resolve this uncertainty is an official MCU casting announcement, typically coming through major industry trades or Marvel's own announcements as production finalizes its roster. Contract volume data shows traders are actively pricing related casting decisions, suggesting the market views Majors' participation as genuinely uncertain rather than settled.
- ›Majors was convicted of assault in December 2023, creating significant industry uncertainty about his future employment prospects
- ›Marvel Studios had positioned Kang as the central antagonist for the Multiverse Saga before the conviction, representing substantial creative investment
- ›Alternative casting or narrative solutions (recasting, character replacement) would require script and production adjustments
- ›Official Marvel casting announcements typically occur 6-12 months before production or during press cycles, providing potential near-term resolution
- ›Comparison contracts show traders assign 59% probability to Tom Holland as Spider-Man but only 36% to Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan, indicating variable confidence across MCU casting decisions
What moved the line
- Aug 23Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan↑16pp27→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Doomsday?: Brie Larson as Captain Marvel↓12pp53→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool↑11pp81→92¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop↓11pp73→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop↑10pp51→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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