Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
Leader sits at 29% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Graham, Norman, Fry
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Graham, Fry, Norman
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
368 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Norman, Fry, Graham
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-NOR-FRY-GRA
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Graham, Fry, Norman
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-GRA-FRY-NOR
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Fry, Norman, Graham
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-FRY-NOR-GRA
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Fry, Graham, Norman
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-FRY-GRA-NOR
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Graham, Norman, Fry
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-GRA-NOR-FRY
Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Norman, Graham, Fry
KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11-NOR-GRA-FRY
Analysis
This probability reflects market belief that Graham, Norman, and Fry will finish in that exact order in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary first round. The market currently assigns 50% confidence to this specific ordering, with the alternative three-candidate arrangement (Graham, Fry, Norman) second at 28%. The primary result depends on candidate performance relative to voter expectations—recent polling, campaign spending patterns, and endorsement momentum would shift these odds. The first-round outcome will be determined when voting occurs, likely in the coming months, and represents one of four possible top-three finishing orders that markets have priced.
- ›Graham's status as incumbent likely anchors him as first, making the ordering primarily dependent on whether Norman or Fry finishes second
- ›Current trading volume concentrates on Graham-Fry-Norman (28¢) and Graham-Norman-Fry (51¢), suggesting market uncertainty centers on the relative standing of these two challengers
- ›Limited volume on extreme outcomes (Fry-Norman-Graham at 3¢) indicates low perceived probability of Graham finishing outside top position
- ›The 50% price for the leader reflects near-parity with all alternative outcomes combined, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than dominant consensus
- ›Publicly available polling data from South Carolina Republican voters would be the primary external signal moving these probabilities before the election date
What moved the line
- Aug 7Graham, Norman, Fry↓20pp48→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Graham, Fry, Norman↓6pp26→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Norman, Fry, Graham↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Fry, Norman, Graham↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Fry, Norman, Graham↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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