Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 17, 2027
395 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Brenda Locke
KXSURREYMAYOR-26OCT17-BLOC
Cluster 2
Will Doug McCallum win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Will Doug McCallum win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Doug McCallum
KXSURREYMAYOR-26OCT17-DMCC
Cluster 3
Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Linda Annis
KXSURREYMAYOR-26OCT17-LANN
Cluster 4
Will Mike Starchuk win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Will Mike Starchuk win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Mike Starchuk
KXSURREYMAYOR-26OCT17-MSTA
Analysis
This 14% probability reflects Linda Annis's chances of winning Surrey's 2026 mayoral election based on prediction market trading. The forecast places her as a mid-tier candidate behind frontrunners like Brenda Locke (30%) but ahead of several others. Current market assessment suggests she faces structural challenges in the race, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. Trading volume on Annis contracts has been minimal, indicating limited conviction among traders. The race will be resolved on election day in October 2026, when Surrey residents vote. Market prices could shift significantly if new polling emerges, campaign developments occur, or if endorsements and fundraising data become public. The relatively modest probability assigned to Annis compared to Locke suggests market participants currently view her as unlikely to secure the mayoralty, though prediction markets are not certainty and outcomes routinely diverge from stated probabilities.
- ›Brenda Locke holds a 2.1x higher probability (30%) than Linda Annis (14%), indicating market consensus favors Locke as the frontrunner candidate
- ›Linda Annis contracts have traded at 31¢ with zero volume in the last 24 hours, suggesting minimal recent market activity or changing sentiment
- ›The mayor's race is three-candidate focused at the top tier (Locke, Annis, Troy Van Vliet at 3¢), with remaining candidates all single-digit probabilities
- ›Official polling data, campaign finance reports, and voter surveys have not been referenced in available contract information, leaving the basis for current odds unclear
- ›The election is scheduled for October 2026, approximately one month away, limiting time for major shifts in candidate positioning or unexpected developments
What moved the line
- Sep 12Brenda Locke↑21pp23→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Linda Annis↓20pp28→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Linda Annis↑17pp8→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Brenda Locke↓11pp34→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Doug McCallum↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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