Will Matt Walsh attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$308
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 2
Will Dan Bongino attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 3
Will Benny Johnson attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 4
Will Ben Shapiro attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 5
Will Candace Owens attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 6
Will Matt Walsh attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 7
Will Tucker Carlson attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 8
Will Tulsi Gabbard attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Cluster 9
Will Tim Pool attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
Analysis
This contract resolves positively if Matt Walsh, a political commentator and media personality, attends at least one official White House press briefing held in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room by a specified deadline. At 38%, the market reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether Walsh will gain credentialed access to cover such an event. The probability hinges on two dynamics: Walsh's media accreditation status and White House press office decisions regarding his credential applications. The current level suggests markets see moderate but not overwhelming likelihood of attendance. The main resolution catalyst is whether Walsh obtains or maintains White House press credentials, which typically depends on his employer status and credential vetting processes. Changes would likely follow shifts in Walsh's media role, high-profile credential disputes, or policy changes affecting press access.
- ›Matt Walsh's current media employment status and whether his organization maintains White House press credentials
- ›Historical approval or denial patterns for Walsh's credential applications to the White House press office
- ›Whether Walsh actively seeks to cover White House briefings as part of his professional duties
- ›Any credentialing policy changes or disputes affecting access to the Brady Briefing Room during the contract period
- ›The specific deadline for contract resolution and timeframe during which at least one briefing must occur
What moved the line
- Jun 22Benny Johnson↓4pp53→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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