George Crotty vs Boris Crighton Winner

The yield curve displays a pronounced inverted structure, with the shortest-tenor markets (14-15 days) showing the highest YES probabilities, clustering around 61-92% for favored outcomes, while the longest-tenor markets (71 and 120+ days) collapse to dramatically lower probabilities, often in the single digits to low 30s. The 14-day bucket contains the cheapest YES probabilities overall, with underdog positions like CLAGGE at 9%, PERSIO at 7%, and HARRIS at 11%, though these represent minority outcomes in their respective matchups. The curve exhibits severe steepening as tenor extends beyond 21 days, with the 71-day bucket showing particularly depressed probabilities across nearly all markets, and the 120-127 day markets settling at 24-33% for secondary outcomes. This inversion strongly suggests the market expects the primary event resolution to occur within the immediate 14-21 day window, with minimal conviction about outcomes beyond that timeframe. The near-total collapse of probabilities at 71+ days indicates either extreme uncertainty about distant events or market skepticism that those matchups will materialize as currently framed. The market is essentially pricing in that most boxing action will conclude by early June, with very low confidence assigned to July and September events. This temporal concentration of conviction reflects typical prediction market behavior around sporting events, where near-term certainty gives way to exponentially increasing uncertainty as resolution dates recede.