New England vs Seattle Pro Football game

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced steepening pattern across the term structure. The 8-day tenor (SEA/TEN games on 26 AUG) trades at 41–58%, while the 12-day tenor (LAR/LAC, NE/CLE, PIT/BUF, SF/LV games on 26 AUG) compresses dramatically to 25–35%, representing the cheapest YES probabilities on the curve. From there, probabilities recover and stabilize across the 25–30 day window (SEP 09–14 games), where most markets cluster in the 35–76% range with substantially higher trading volumes. The curve's shape is distinctly non-monotonic: it dips sharply in the near-term 12-day bucket before rebounding and flattening out across the medium-term tenors. This structure reveals the market's expectation that the event family is heavily front-loaded toward the earliest resolution dates (8 days out), with a temporary repricing lower at the 12-day mark—possibly reflecting lower-profile or less-favored matchups—before normalizing across the broader September slate. The steepness and recovery pattern suggests traders view the near-term games as the primary event window, with confidence in outcomes crystallizing as the calendar extends. The elevated volumes in the 25–30 day buckets indicate these later games command more liquidity and conviction, while the 12-day trough may reflect genuine uncertainty or lower market interest in those specific matchups rather than a systematic view that outcomes become less likely.