What will the Fear & Greed Index be on Jul 2, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed, with this contract predicting which sentiment will dominate on July 2, 2026. The 49% probability for Fear reflects recent market volatility and uncertainty, with trading volume concentrated on Neutral (48% implied) and Fear outcomes. The Index responds to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments, and shifts in asset valuations. Near-term catalysts include economic data releases, central bank communications, and equity market movements in the two days before resolution. The current distribution suggests meaningful disagreement among traders about whether sentiment will remain cautious or shift toward either extreme fear or recovery.

• ›Fear and Neutral contracts account for 97% of implied probability, indicating traders expect no greed-driven sentiment
• ›Neutral contract has highest 24-hour volume ($948) despite lowest price (10¢), suggesting active repositioning between fear and neutrality
• ›The 49% Fear price is the leading outcome but not dominant, with 51% probability distributed across other sentiment buckets
• ›Extreme Fear at 30% probability indicates non-trivial tail risk, requiring either economic deterioration or crisis-level events by July 2
• ›Greed contract priced at 3¢ reflects minimal trader confidence in positive market sentiment within the two-day window

What moved the line

• Aug 5Greed↑31pp13→44¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Extreme Fear↓21pp25→4¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Greed↓20pp44→24¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Extreme Fear↑18pp8→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4Fear↑10pp21→31¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 2d
• Who will win the WA-4 primarylast 3% · 2d
• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026last 97% · 3d
• Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 6d
• Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70last 97% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds