Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 110 and 114.99 million
Leader sits at 25% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
125 million and above
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
115 to 119.99 million
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$145
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
495 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 95 and 99.99 million?: 95 to 99.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-95
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be at least 125 million?: 125 million and above
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-ABOVE125
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 120 and 124.99 million?: 120 to 124.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-120
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 115 and 119.99 million?: 115 to 119.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-115
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 110 and 114.99 million?: 110 to 114.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-110
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 105 and 109.99 million?: 105 to 109.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-105
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 100 and 104.99 million?: 100 to 104.99 million
KXHOUSETURNOUT-26NOV03-100
Analysis
This contract resolves 'yes' if the November 2026 midterm election produces between 110 and 114.99 million total House votes cast. At 32% probability, traders estimate this outcome is moderately unlikely compared to higher or lower turnout scenarios. Historical House turnout has ranged from roughly 80 million (2014) to 120 million (2018), making this a mid-range band. The probability reflects uncertainty about voter enthusiasm, demographic shifts, and competitive intensity in 2026. Key drivers include early voting trends in 2024-2025, whether high-profile races energize or depress turnout, and macroeconomic conditions closer to November. The outcome resolves on election night once official vote totals are certified, typically within weeks of November 3, 2026. Current market pricing suggests traders lean toward turnout exceeding 115 million or falling below 110 million.
- ›2024 presidential election turnout (estimated 120+ million) sets a baseline; midterm turnout typically declines 15-20% from presidential years, supporting the 110-115M band as plausible
- ›Early voting participation rates in 2025-2026 special elections and state contests will signal voter engagement levels before November
- ›Competitive House races and incumbent vulnerability vary by district; a nationalized or highly polarized environment could push total turnout above this band, while low engagement could fall below it
- ›Historical data shows 2018 midterms drew ~120M votes (high engagement) while 2014 drew ~83M (low engagement), making outcome distribution across all bands material
- ›Official vote totals are certified by states through November-December 2026; this contract resolves based on Federal Election Commission or authoritative media compilation of validated totals
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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