Will no goal be scored
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
17 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will no goal be scored” vs “Will Argentina record the first goal of the game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will no goal be scored
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27DZAAUT-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27CROGHA-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27CODUZB-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26CPVKSA-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26EGYIRI-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26URUESP-NONE
Will no goal be scored?: No Goal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27COLPOR-NONE
Cluster 2
Will Argentina record the first goal of the game
Will Argentina record the first goal of the game?: Argentina
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27JORARG-ARG
Cluster 3
Will Portugal record the first goal of the game
Will Portugal record the first goal of the game?: Portugal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27COLPOR-POR
Cluster 4
Will Norway record the first goal of the game
Will Norway record the first goal of the game?: Norway
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26NORFRA-NOR
Cluster 5
Will Cape Verde record the first goal of the game
Will Cape Verde record the first goal of the game?: Cape Verde
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26CPVKSA-CPV
Cluster 6
Will France record the first goal of the game
Will France record the first goal of the game?: France
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26NORFRA-FRA
Cluster 7
Will England record the first goal of the game
Will England record the first goal of the game?: England
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27PANENG-ENG
Cluster 8
Will Senegal record the first goal of the game
Will Senegal record the first goal of the game?: Senegal
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26SENIRQ-SEN
Cluster 9
Will Jordan record the first goal of the game
Will Jordan record the first goal of the game?: Jordan
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27JORARG-JOR
Cluster 10
Will Algeria record the first goal of the game
Will Algeria record the first goal of the game?: Algeria
KXWCFTTS-26JUN27DZAAUT-DZA
Cluster 11
Will Uruguay record the first goal of the game
Will Uruguay record the first goal of the game?: Uruguay
KXWCFTTS-26JUN26URUESP-URU
Analysis
This 40% probability indicates that odds-makers assess a roughly 2-in-5 chance that this match ends scoreless. The underlying contracts show strong market confidence that Argentina (67¢) or Norway (76¢) will score first if any goal occurs, suggesting these teams are viewed as offensive favorites. The probability is being driven by the relative attacking strength of the teams involved and baseline rates for 0-0 draws in competitive matches. Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, which will be determined when the game concludes and final statistics are recorded.
- ›Argentina and Norway combined represent 143¢ in first-goal probabilities, indicating market consensus that one of these two teams is most likely to score if goals are scored
- ›A 40% no-goal probability implies a 60% chance of at least one goal, consistent with typical scoring rates in international matches between these competitive levels
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in Argentina (67¢) and Norway (76¢) contracts, with minimal volume on lower-probability scorers, suggesting market focus on the likely goal-scoring team rather than the no-goal outcome
- ›The no-goal probability would increase if either team is significantly weakened by injuries or lineup changes before kickoff
- ›Final match outcome will be determined by actual play and will resolve this contract definitively when the game concludes
What moved the line
- Jun 18Uruguay↑14pp9→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Algeria↑12pp27→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20England↑10pp63→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Norway↑9pp21→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Senegal↑9pp62→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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