Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2026
101 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Jac Caglianone record” vs “Will Shohei Ohtani record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Jac Caglianone record
Will Jac Caglianone record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Jac Caglianone
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-JCAGLIANONE14
Will Jac Caglianone record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Jac Caglianone
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-JCAGLIANONE14
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani record
Will Shohei Ohtani record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-SOHTANI17
Will Shohei Ohtani record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C50-SOHTANI17
Cluster 3
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong record
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Pete Crow-Armstrong
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-PCROWARMSTRONG4
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Pete Crow-Armstrong
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-PCROWARMSTRONG4
Cluster 4
Will Miguel Vargas record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 5
Will Yordan Alvarez record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 6
Will Brent Rooker record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 7
Will Bryce Harper record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 8
Will Jarren Duran record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 9
Will Dansby Swanson record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 10
Will Juan Soto record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Juan Soto record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Juan Soto
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-JSOTO22
Cluster 11
Will Kyle Schwarber record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 12
Will Munetaka Murakami record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 13
Will Matt Chapman record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 14
Will Josh Naylor record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 15
Will Alex Bregman record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 16
Will Ivan Herrera record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Analysis
This contract predicts a 23% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in recent years, including 62 home runs in 2022, but age, injury history, and team performance influence annual output. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether he'll maintain elite power production through a full season. Early-season performance through June and July will provide the clearest signal of whether he's on pace, as players typically establish their trajectory by mid-summer. The contract resolves after the regular season concludes in late September/early October when final statistics are official.
- ›Judge's home run rate through May-June 2026 compared to his historical seasonal pace of 35-45 home runs in recent healthy seasons
- ›Number of games Judge plays; injuries or missed time would significantly reduce probability of reaching 40 home runs
- ›Team batting environment; team offensive ranking and run-scoring context affects individual power output opportunity
- ›Comparative market prices show 72¢ for the same Judge contract on another Kalshi market, indicating potential mispricing or data lag
- ›Competitor probability at 23% suggests marginal likelihood; Judge's track record as elite power hitter argues for baseline expectations above this level
What moved the line
- Jun 18Brent Rooker↓24pp37→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Josh Naylor↓21pp44→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Josh Naylor↑21pp23→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Dansby Swanson↑20pp40→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Brent Rooker↑19pp18→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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