Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$682
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2026
147 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Aaron Judge record” vs “Will Junior Caminero record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Judge record
Cluster 2
Will Junior Caminero record
Will Junior Caminero record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-JCAMINERO13
Will Junior Caminero record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-JCAMINERO13
Cluster 3
Will Mike Trout record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 4
Will Colson Montgomery record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 5
Will Willson Contreras record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 6
Will Juan Soto record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Juan Soto record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Juan Soto
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-JSOTO22
Cluster 7
Will Will Smith record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 8
Will Cody Bellinger record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 9
Will Jac Caglianone record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 10
Will Julio Rodriguez record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 11
Will Ketel Marte record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 12
Will Josh Naylor record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 13
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 14
Will Ben Rice record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Ben Rice record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Ben Rice
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-BRICE22
Cluster 15
Will Mookie Betts record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 16
Will Shea Langeliers record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 17
Will Willy Adames record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 18
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Analysis
This contract predicts a 23% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in recent years, including 62 home runs in 2022, but age, injury history, and team performance influence annual output. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether he'll maintain elite power production through a full season. Early-season performance through June and July will provide the clearest signal of whether he's on pace, as players typically establish their trajectory by mid-summer. The contract resolves after the regular season concludes in late September/early October when final statistics are official.
- ›Judge's home run rate through May-June 2026 compared to his historical seasonal pace of 35-45 home runs in recent healthy seasons
- ›Number of games Judge plays; injuries or missed time would significantly reduce probability of reaching 40 home runs
- ›Team batting environment; team offensive ranking and run-scoring context affects individual power output opportunity
- ›Comparative market prices show 72¢ for the same Judge contract on another Kalshi market, indicating potential mispricing or data lag
- ›Competitor probability at 23% suggests marginal likelihood; Judge's track record as elite power hitter argues for baseline expectations above this level
What moved the line
- May 7Aaron Judge↓14pp72→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Willson Contreras↑11pp6→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Junior Caminero↑11pp20→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Jac Caglianone↑10pp13→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Josh Naylor↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.