Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
14 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2026
40 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Manny Machado record” vs “Will Oneil Cruz record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Manny Machado record
Will Manny Machado record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Manny Machado
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-MMACHADO13
Will Manny Machado record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Manny Machado
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-MMACHADO13
Cluster 2
Will Oneil Cruz record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 3
Will Alex Bregman record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 4
Will Eugenio Suárez record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 5
Will Jackson Merrill record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 6
Will Shohei Ohtani record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 7
Will Yordan Alvarez record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 8
Will Hunter Goodman record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 9
Will Tyler Soderstrom record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 10
Will Seiya Suzuki record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 11
Will Trent Grisham record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 12
Will Junior Caminero record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 13
Will Pete Alonso record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 37% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in previous seasons, but the probability reflects uncertainty about his current performance, health status, and team circumstances halfway through the season. The main factors affecting this estimate are Judge's year-to-date home run pace through early July, any injuries or lineup changes affecting his at-bats, and the remaining schedule length. Resolution will be determined by his final home run total when the regular season concludes in late September or early October, at which point all games will be completed and the statistic will be definitively known.
- ›Judge's home run total through July 2, 2026, and his current pace relative to a 40-homer season trajectory
- ›Number of games remaining in the regular season and Judge's expected playing time and health status
- ›Yankees offensive lineup composition and whether changes in team personnel affect his batting opportunities
- ›Historical variance in Judge's season-to-season home run production and any age or performance decline factors
- ›Comparison of his 2026 season statistics to his prior seasons that reached or fell short of 40-home-run thresholds
What moved the line
- Aug 23Oneil Cruz↑26pp32→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Hunter Goodman↓26pp50→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Trent Grisham↑20pp51→71¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Oneil Cruz↑16pp16→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Alex Bregman↑16pp67→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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