SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Company prediction markets — earnings, M&A, executive moves.

438 Kalshi-classified live questions across 438 Kalshi contracts, $42,230 of 24h volume. 110 sit in coin-flip territory. 37 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=companies.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/companies
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=companies
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 22 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$42.2K-62%
min $43.0Kmax $181.4K
Breadth-27%+1.9pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:00 UTC
Jun 15past 7d · UTCJun 22 · 04:23

Live contracts

438

24h volume

$42.2K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

25%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

1

Top mover

-38¢

KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2027-BASE

Companies — liquidity topography (top 159 of 438 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 2.5/h

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2.51.40.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Companies

Showing top 20 of 438

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before October10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$4.5K
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 202613¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.7K
Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?: Paramount82¢
IY 21%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.4K
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge +13¢RVol —Resid —$2.2Kthesis ◆
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 202714¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 899%Resid —$1.7K
Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 202712¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
Who will IPO before 2027?: Anduril5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 44000046¢
IY 707%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 480%Resid —$1.1K
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 202626¢
IY 641%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 669%Resid —$1.0K
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Sep 1, 202615¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$952
Who will IPO before 2027?: OpenAI67¢
IY 93%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$868
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 202735¢
IY 351%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$806
Will Tesla Inc. report above 420000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 42000064¢
IY 339%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 318%Resid —$805
Who will IPO before 2027?: Ripple Labs10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$801
How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027?: Above 500000 in a single quarter20¢
IY 515%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 620%Resid —$765
Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 46000017¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$753
Will None's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?: None before July 202714¢
IY 600%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 792%Resid —$728
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Oct 1, 202656¢
IY 284%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 400%Resid —$712
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 20264¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$637
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?: Anthropic28¢
IY 486%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 359%Resid —$624
438 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Companies

From market_changes
23h agoKalshi
Will Base44 / Wix run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Base44 / Wix
3¢41→3 (-38)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will Allstate run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Allstate
2¢39→2 (-37)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Paramount+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Paramount+
5¢32→5 (-27)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: SpaceX
5¢32→5 (-27)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Temu run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Temu
5¢32→5 (-27)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will SpaceX run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: SpaceX
31¢7→31 (+24)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will Liquid Death run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Liquid Death
5¢25→5 (-20)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Disney+ run an ad during the Big Game 2027?: Disney+
60¢49→60 (+11)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 22 Jun 2026 04:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=companies →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=companies →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →