SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Politics prediction markets — repricing and cross-venue gaps, live.

1,441 Kalshi-classified live questions across 1,441 Kalshi contracts, $415,687 of 24h volume. 307 sit in coin-flip territory. 155 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=politics.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/politics
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=politics
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$415.7K-49%
min $359.5Kmax $1.1M
Breadth-12%+1.2pp
min -46%max 56%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:30 UTC
Aug 2past 7d · UTCAug 9 · 18:23

Live contracts

1,441

24h volume

$415.7K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

21%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

78

Top mover

+45¢

KXFAUCIIPHONE-27-27JAN01

Politics — liquidity topography (top 394 of 1,441 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 3.6/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d3.61.90.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Politics

Showing top 20 of 1,441

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?: Todd Blanche97¢
IY 7.8%Cliff 32Edge —RVol 128%Resid —$132.1K
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 20276¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol 981%Resid —$53.5K
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?: Yes3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$16.2K
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?41¢
IY 299%Cliff 1Edge +16¢RVol 297%Resid —$15.9Kthesis ◆
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Anthony Fauci41¢
IY 364%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 751%Resid —$11.4K
Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?: Yes4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$10.3Kthesis ◆
Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 202610¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 866%Resid —$9.0K
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Mar 1, 202726¢
IY 510%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 648%Resid —$8.9K
Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?: Yes17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge +17¢RVol 415%Resid —$8.7Kthesis ◆
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Oct 1, 20265¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$6.9Kthesis ◆
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Aug 2026?: 14¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.8K
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 20268¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.4K
Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026?: 200-21915¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$3.8K
Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026?: 100-1195¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.8K
Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026?: 160-17915¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.2K
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?: Democrats, 10 to 12%18¢
IY 369%Cliff 5Edge +3¢RVol —Resid —$3.1Kthesis ◆
Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 20276¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Will Donald Trump make between 220 and 240 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 9, 2026?: 220-2407¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 202814¢
IY 440%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.8K
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?: Democrats, 8 to 10%25¢
IY 243%Cliff 3Edge +6¢RVol —Resid —$2.8Kthesis ◆
1,441 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Politics

From market_changes
5h agoKalshi
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
47¢2→47 (+45)
open →
25m agoKalshi
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
19¢54→19 (-35)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 1:00 AM and 1:59 AM ET this week?: 1-2 AM
32¢66→32 (-34)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
36¢70→36 (-34)
open →
10m agoKalshi
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
53¢19→53 (+34)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 1:00 AM and 1:59 AM ET this week?: 1-2 AM
67¢36→67 (+31)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 5:00 AM and 5:59 AM ET this week?: 5-6 AM
20¢49→20 (-29)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week?: 2-3 AM
27¢55→27 (-28)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 09 Aug 2026 18:08:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=politics →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=politics →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →