SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Politics Prediction Markets

Live Kalshi prediction-market contracts classified under Politics. This page is the per-category canonical entry — for the full mixed-venue index see /markets, or use /screen for interactive filters.

What this hub contains: every Kalshi contract whose category field equals “Politics”. What it does not contain: Polymarket contracts (their venue does not currently classify into this taxonomy) and questions aggregated across multiple contracts (see /odds).

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

Live contracts

1,089

Venue

Kalshi

Refresh

5 min

Top markets in Politics

Sorted by 24-hour USD volume. Each row links to the per-market page with the full indicator stack.

ContractPrice
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026[K]
96¢
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027[K]
9¢
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026 [K]
40¢
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June[K]
9¢
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026[K]
9¢
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 14, 2026?: Before May 14, 2026[K]
91¢
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: R-House, R-Senate[K]
26¢
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026[K]
33¢
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026[K]
53¢
Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?: Venezuela[K]
5¢
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July[K]
19¢
Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026?: Above 20[K]
27¢
Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al?: Before 2027[K]
38¢
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?: D-House, D-Senate[K]
41¢
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026 [K]
13¢
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027[K]
91¢
Will Marty Makary be out as FDA commissioner before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026[K]
84¢
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes[K]
14¢
Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026[K]
17¢
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026[K]
73¢

Showing top 20 of 1,089 markets in this hub.

Other categories

Sports(9,842)Elections(9,340)Entertainment(2,951)Economics(2,006)Commodities(552)Climate and Weather(439)Mentions(431)Crypto(352)

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 May 2026 17:53:55 GMT.

Per-question aggregates

Cross-venue questions that bind Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. /odds →

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