SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Politics prediction markets — repricing and cross-venue gaps, live.

1,490 Kalshi-classified live questions across 1,490 Kalshi contracts, $469,296 of 24h volume. 311 sit in coin-flip territory. 1,347 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=politics.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/politics
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=politics
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+181.0
Vol Flow$469.3K+81%
min $258.9Kmax $1.0M
Breadth8%+46.6pp
min -83%max 85%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:45 UTC
Sep 17past 7d · UTCSep 23 · 22:23

Live contracts

1,490

24h volume

$469.3K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

21%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

71

Top mover

+87¢

KXFUNDRAISING-DNCQ326-A8000000

Politics — liquidity topography (top 445 of 1,490 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 4.5 → 4.5/h

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d365d4.54.54.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Politics

Showing top 20 of 1,490

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 20273¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$29.0K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu47¢
IY 411%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$27.5K
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?51¢
IY 268%Cliff 1Edge +25¢RVol —Resid —$22.1Kthesis ◆
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Maria Bartiromo5¢
IY 815%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$17.2K
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?: Democrats, 12 to 14%13¢
IY 602%Cliff 7Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$16.5Kthesis ◆
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$13.8Kthesis ◆
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?: Yes27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$12.7K
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 20279¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge +14¢RVol —Resid —$10.6Kthesis ◆
Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 20274¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$10.0K
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?: At least 26¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$8.2K
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?: At least 13¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$7.9K
Will Trump officially rename AI before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 202628¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$7.7K
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?: Democrats, 8 to 10%27¢
IY 243%Cliff 3Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$7.1Kthesis ◆
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?: At least 33¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$6.4K
Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.8K
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?83¢
IY 57%Cliff 5Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$5.8Kthesis ◆
Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 20273¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.7K
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Natalie Harp3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.6K
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Scott Jennings15¢
IY 243%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.5K
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.5K
1,490 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Politics

From market_changes
10h agoKalshi
Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $8M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $8M
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Brian Johnson be confirmed as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 15000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 15,000
86¢2→86 (+84)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will MAGA Inc. report more than $275M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $275M
92¢8→92 (+84)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026?: At least 8 mph
85¢2→85 (+83)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will MAGA Inc. report more than $275M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $275M
10¢93→10 (-83)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $30M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $30M
83¢2→83 (+81)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will MAGA Inc. report more than $325M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $325M
85¢4→85 (+81)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Sep 2026 23:08:41 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=politics →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=politics →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →