SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Politics prediction markets — repricing and cross-venue gaps, live.

1,110 Kalshi-classified live questions across 1,110 Kalshi contracts, $525,727 of 24h volume. 241 sit in coin-flip territory. 276 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=politics.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/politics
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=politics
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$525.7K-54%
min $373.9Kmax $1.6M
Breadth-2%-4.3pp
min -38%max 22%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 20:15 UTC
Jun 16past 7d · UTCJun 23 · 18:23

Live contracts

1,110

24h volume

$525.7K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

22%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

53

Top mover

-66¢

KXKNESSET-27-SEP01

Politics — liquidity topography (top 497 of 1,110 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 4.0/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d4.02.10.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Politics

Showing top 20 of 1,110

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: D-House, R-Senate37¢
IY 279%Cliff 2Edge +6¢RVol —Resid —$103.4Kthesis ◆
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?: Yes90¢
IY 152%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 311%Resid —$44.2K
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 20278¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$34.3K
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 202621¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 832%Resid —$14.1K
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jun 2026?: 13¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$12.9K
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge +79¢RVol —Resid —$11.1Kthesis ◆
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 329?: Yes17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 653%Resid —$10.3K
Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 202615¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 397%Resid —$10.2K
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: R-House, R-Senate21¢
IY 616%Cliff 4Edge +6¢RVol —Resid —$9.6Kthesis ◆
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 202748¢
IY 206%Cliff 1Edge +3¢RVol —Resid —$8.8Kthesis ◆
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 40 in June 2026?: At least 4043¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge +28¢RVol 503%Resid —$7.9Kthesis ◆
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche71¢
IY 16%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 90%Resid —$7.2K
Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 20263¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.9K
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 202644¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 840%Resid —$6.8K
Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 20279¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$6.8K
Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Jun 21, 2026 and Jun 27, 2026?: Above 256¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.4K
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 27, 2026?: Before Jun 27, 202611¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.4K
Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 40.0% at 10:00 AM ET on Jun 26, 2026?: Above 40.0%25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.3K
Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term?: $0 / No Acquisition79¢
IY 10%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 69%Resid —$6.3K
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics?: Below 39.610¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.2K
1,110 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Politics

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
17¢83→17 (-66)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
6¢71→6 (-65)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will Trump endorse at least 25 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 25
23¢78→23 (-55)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 1:00 AM and 1:59 AM ET this week?: 1-2 AM
14¢64→14 (-50)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Anthony Fauci
87¢40→87 (+47)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026?: Above 125
51¢5→51 (+46)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
47¢2→47 (+45)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026?: Above 150
48¢3→48 (+45)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Jun 2026 20:08:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=politics →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=politics →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →